014
FXAK67 PAJK 291259
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
459 AM AKDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Minor changes to the ongoing forecast for the short
term, with changes largely revolving around PoP. At time of
writing, a weakening front is pushing northward from the south.
Similar to the previous weakening front, this front will struggle
to push northward into the central and northern panhandle.
Therefore, raised PoPs across the southern portion of the
panhandle, and reduced PoPs across the northern portion to better
reflect the front falling apart. Otherwise, cloud cover over most
of the panhandle will keep temperatures around normal, except for
the extreme northern portions of the panhandle. Current thinking
is the extreme north will see some breaks in clouds, raising
temperatures. Finally, due to these breaks and the large scale
clearing in British Columbia and Yukon during the morning and
early afternoon, a thermal gradients around northern Lynn Canal
will once again see enhanced wind speeds up to 20 knots.

.LONG TERM...The only real weather of note in the long term
forecast period is a weakening low that will move its way
northward in the gulf bringing a decaying front through the
panhandle Sunday. This will provide an increasing chance of
showers from south to north late Saturday night through Sunday.
Due to the nature of this system, precipitation amounts overall
are expected to be low.

Once that blows through, high pressure will gradually build in
from the south behind it by mid week. While easterly showers are
not out of the question during this time, overall shower activity
should continue to diminish due to the strengthening ridge. While
some cloud cover remains likely for the outer coast with a marine
layer, temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm
throughout the panhandle during this timeframe with highs in the
mid 60s and low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will be mainly VFR throughout all
locations with acceptions in Yakutat and Petersburg where there
will are IFR CIGS this morning. A weakening front moving into the
S panhandle will advect showers N resulting in MVFR CIGS and VIS
at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage due to higher
elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain warm
through the weekend, therefore the Chilkat River is expected to
remain above minor flood stage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...BC

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