Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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545 FXUS61 KAKQ 270600 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the area from the northwest, and slowly crosses the region overnight through Thursday afternoon, bringing the a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region late Thursday through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Initial batch of scattered strong/severe storms has pushed offshore. - Additional showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped over the far north and will gradually spread south overnight. - Some beneficial rain has occurred over the north, and additional rainfall is likely into at least central portions of the area, although it will be hit and miss due to the nature of the storms. The latest analysis shows an upper trough extending south from the eastern Great Lakes into the TN Valley. The airmass has stabilized quite a bit over the past few hrs with the loss of daytime heating (and northern areas having received storms that dropped temperatures into the low-mid 70s). While elevated instability remains, along with around 30 kt of effective shear over the northern 1/2 of the CWA, expect mainly sub-severe storms overnight. PWATs are rather high at 1.80-1.90" and expect some training of storms given a WSW low level jet similar to the flow in the mid/upper levels. Overall, this will be beneficial rain with the only threat for flooding being if heavy rain occurs over highly urbanized areas. The 30-35 kt WSW jet will tend to allow convection to linger through 06-09Z, potentially into southern VA. Convection gradually diminishes in coverage early Thu AM. Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 60s N to mid 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thursday afternoon-evening. - Seasonally hot on both Thursday and Friday. The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest chc across SE VA and NE NC. However, there is some uncertainty with respect to where convection develops on Thu (mainly regarding whether it will be in srn VA/NE NC or just to our south). Coverage/placement of tstms Thursday aftn will depend on the evolution of overnight convection. High temperatures return to seasonally hot levels ranging from the mid 80s to near 90F. Showers/tstms largely dissipate or move to our south by late Thursday evening, although some isolated activity could linger into the early overnight hours over far srn VA/NE NC. High pressure builds across New England Thursday night into Friday following the frontal passage. Lows Thursday night fall into the mid 60s-lower 70s. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower to mid 80s along the coast, and seasonally hot inland with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F. Surface high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and with more humidity, with dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on Sunday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front. - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. The heat builds back over the local area this weekend as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow once again increases out of the SW. 850mb temps rise to around 20C on Saturday, and to 20-22C on Sunday. This will support high temps in the mid 90s both days. Aftn dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating on both days. This is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS guidance, but is below the mid 70s-80F shown by the NBM (which is likely too high especially given how dry it has been). Resultant heat indices are in the 100-105F range on Saturday, and 105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are possible on Saturday afternoon (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold front drops through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 12z/26 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... Areas of showers/tstms continue to push ENE from central VA to the Eastern Shore as a cold front approaches from the N. The best coverage will remain at SBY with occasional IFR vsby restrictions through ~08z. Coverage is more scattered around RIC with brief vsby restrictions in showers/tstms possible through ~09z. Farther SE at ORF, PHF, and ECG coverage will be more isolated and arriving around and after 08z. Prior to the arrival of the boundary, these sites will have a SW wind of 10-15kt gusting to ~20kt. Some MVFR stratus remains possible 08-15z, with brief IFR cigs possible at SBY 10-12z. The front will be slow to push through southern VA and NE NC this afternoonwith a 30-60% chc of redeveloping aftn/early evening showers/tstms (higher chc at ECG and lower at ORF). Brief flight restrictions are possible, mainly in vsby. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday. There is another decent chance for showers/tstms later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure and drier conditions return by Monday. && .MARINE... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... SW winds mainly 5-15 kt will become S and increase to 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by late this aftn into this evening in advance of a cold front. Waves will build to 2-3 ft in the Bay, and seas will build to 3-5 ft in the coastal waters. So, SCAs are in effect for the mouth of the Bay, all coastal waters and the Currituck Sound from thru 1 AM (4 AM north of Parramore Island). That weakening cold front will push through the region late tonight into Thu aftn. NE winds expected late Thu night through Fri morning, then E and SE winds for Fri aftn into Sat morning, as high pressure slides by to the north then off the srn New England coast. Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today and Thu. Moderate rip risk on Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/LKB NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JDM/TMG