Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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813 FXUS64 KAMA 262343 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 643 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A surface boundary has made it`s way to the southern Texas Panhandle with easterly winds behind it. A weak cold front has moved into the far northern Texas Panhandle with a little bit stronger easterly winds behind it. Temperatures are also a little cooler behind this front in the north. Thunderstorms may develop across the southern Texas Panhandle in association with this first boundary. However, moisture is lacking and the instability isn`t the greatest. The better chance at seeing storms hold together will be across the northwest in association with the cluster of storms moving east in northeast New Mexico. These storms have a little better moisture to work with along with better shear and instability. Storms are expected to move across the northwest late this afternoon into this evening with isolated storms further south across the southwest and south-central Texas Panhandle. Storms across the south are expected to dissipate with the setting sun, while the storms across the north carry on past sunset. More storms may develop after midnight in the Texas Panhandle as a low level jet brings additional moisture and an upper level short wave trough moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Thunderstorms may be still ongoing in the eastern Panhandles after sunrise on Thursday in association with this upper level short wave. Thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon may be somewhat dependent on how widespread the rain is Thursday morning. Confidence is highest in thunderstorms again developing in the northwest late in the afternoon where the atmosphere will recover the quickest. The thunderstorm chances will then be the greatest across the Oklahoma Panhandle Thursday night closest to the upper level dynamics. && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The center of the upper level high will remain to the southeast of the Panhandles through next Tuesday. This will put the Panhandles in a west to southwest flow aloft, especially Friday through Sunday which will continue to pump sub-tropical moisture over the area. This moisture combined with and occasional vort max will help to bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area. A stalled frontal boundary across the area on Saturday may help to enhance the shower and thunderstorm risk. The high starts to build more over the Panhandles Monday and Tuesday and this may keep the rain chances to our west for a brief time. Friday still looks to be the hottest day with some locations eclipsing 105 degrees in the Texas Panhandle. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the majority of the TAF period. The only exception would be for erratic winds if nearby TS move over TAF sites. This is possible through around 06Z, before chances diminish. Winds overall will be out of the southeast at 10-15 kts with higher gusts at times. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 72 98 76 102 / 40 10 10 0 Beaver OK 71 97 76 102 / 40 20 20 10 Boise City OK 68 95 68 99 / 50 30 20 10 Borger TX 75 103 80 108 / 40 10 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 72 100 75 104 / 50 10 10 0 Canyon TX 71 97 75 101 / 30 20 10 0 Clarendon TX 73 97 76 102 / 20 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 69 97 70 102 / 40 20 10 10 Guymon OK 70 97 73 102 / 50 20 30 10 Hereford TX 72 99 75 103 / 30 20 10 0 Lipscomb TX 73 99 79 105 / 40 20 10 0 Pampa TX 72 98 77 103 / 30 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 73 99 78 104 / 30 10 0 0 Wellington TX 75 101 79 105 / 20 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ010-015-018>020- 317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...29