786
FXUS64 KAMA 291149
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
649 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Perturbations north of the 500 mb ridge are forecast to progress
through the High Plains today and parts of tomorrow. This will
spark thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon, with
additional waves moving in from northwest through the rest of this
evening and perhaps even continuing into the afternoon on Sunday.

Some storms within the first 24 hours may become severe with
damaging winds and torrential rainfall as the primary threats. A
sufficient environment exists today for strong thunderstorms to
form. With marginal 0-6 km bulk shear values, (25-35 kts), storms
may encounter a bit of trouble when sustaining their strength for
long periods of time. Even still, a multicellular storm mode is
anticipated today, which would suggest storms could go through
different phases of strength and may pulse near or above severe
limits for extended periods of time.

High temperatures today should range between the upper 80`s to
the triple digits. The northern Panhandles are favored to lean
towards the cooler highs for today since the cold front is
forecast to pass through those places before peak heating. Areas
south of the frontal boundary should reach the upper 90`s and
100`s since it may stall in the central Texas Panhandle this
afternoon before finally passing all the way though by the
night time hours. A Heat Advisory is already in effect today for
the Palo Duro Canyon, with the potential to see temperatures at
105 degrees and heat index values may reach up to 109.

By Sunday, most of the thunderstorm operations should cease in
the morning hours. However, HREF ensemble guidance suggest that
an additional band of showers may move in from the south and light
to moderate showers have a chance to continue into the afternoon
hours. Given these parameters, Sunday high temperatures should be
the coolest of the new week, ranging from the upper 80`s to mid
90`s.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The upper level ridge will build over the area Monday and Tuesday
before exiting east for the rest of the extended. The overall
synopsis includes shower and thunderstorm potential Tuesday night
and onward. Barring a few intermittent fronts, daytime highs will
still be above average most days of the new week. Considering how
most of the thunderstorm activity will occur later in the day and
during the overnight hours, high temperatures will have the
opportunity to reach the upper 90`s and triple digits through the
extended. Tuesday in particular looks to be the hottest day of the
week, and heat related products may need to be considered and
implemented down the line.

Some minor adjustments have been made to Tuesday`s highs, namely
increases for the Palo Duro Canyon since high temperatures look
to be the primary concern for the day. Otherwise, NBM values for
PoPs alongside other parameters were reviewed and accepted. Expect
changes to begin once the days reach within 72 hours of the
forecast period, as mesoscale feature become more defined.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today, breezy surface winds have engaged at AMA and GUY. Later
this morning, AMA will see winds taper off, but DHT and GUY will
experience breezy wind from the north after a front moves
through. Wind gusts up to 30 kts are possible.

By the afternoon, thunderstorm activity will begin near AMA. A
PROB30 group is still implemented, but confidence for
thunderstorms on top of the terminal has decreased some and will
most likely be in the vicinity. Towards the evening hours,
thunderstorms are expected to impact the DHT and GUY sites. PROB30
groups are still at play with higher confidence for these
terminals to receive flight rule impacts. After midnight, showers
and thunderstorms may still continue for GUY. Eventually, lower
ceilings are anticipated to settle in after the storms have moved
through. MVFR conditions are expected at DHT and GUY through the
end of the period.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  71  92  72 /  30  30  20  10
Beaver OK                  92  65  86  70 /  10  60  30  10
Boise City OK              87  63  88  67 /  20  70  30  10
Borger TX                 103  71  96  75 /  40  40  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              99  70  95  71 /  30  50  20  10
Canyon TX                  98  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  10
Clarendon TX               99  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 92  65  92  67 /  20  70  20  10
Guymon OK                  90  65  87  68 /  20  70  30  10
Hereford TX                99  71  94  70 /  20  30  10   0
Lipscomb TX                98  68  89  72 /  30  50  30  10
Pampa TX                   99  69  91  71 /  40  40  20  10
Shamrock TX               101  73  94  72 /  10  30  20  10
Wellington TX             101  75  96  74 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55