153
FXUS63 KAPX 281746
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
146 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns to the area this afternoon through tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through Saturday. A few
  strong storms will be possible.

- Wetter pattern moves into the Midwest region later next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Return flow overtaking the central US and the Upper Midwest this
morning...as ridging and attendant 1018mb surface high slip east out
of Michigan...and in advance of approaching troughing across the
western US/Plains, though a few niblets of PV have made their way as
far east as MN down to IA/MO. Some showers moving into our
southwest, falling out of a 10kft cloud deck...in the vicinity of
some better theta-e advection just to our southwest...though for
now, best forcing and moisture remains to our west and southwest,
where pwats approach 1.5in again closer to the trough axis and
attendant surface lows over the Plains.

Expecting showers to continue to trickle northeastward into the
area...especially south of TC through midday. Think we will be
looking at increasing showers, particularly from the Tip of the Mitt
northward through the afternoon...though not impossible that it
could start to fill in further south, closer to TC as we go through
the day. Temps likely to stay a little cooler today given the cloud
cover around today...which is a little more expansive than
previously expected. Do think it`ll be a bit gusty out of the
southeast at times...perhaps 15-25kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Broad upper-level ridging will slide over the Great Lakes today as a
weak shortwave embedded in the main flow progresses overhead.
Subsidence provided by the aforementioned ridge will build surface
high pressure into New England today as a second, much stronger wave
digs across the northern Great Plains and supports a cyclone that is
expected to trek across the far northern Great Lakes/southern
Ontario into Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Rain returns this afternoon through tonight -- Increasing mid/high
clouds will spread from west to east this morning as the
aforementioned system works closer to the Great Lakes. Slight
chances for light showers return to the area this afternoon where
any rain may struggle to reach the ground initially with a
relatively dry low-level airmass in place. Best chances for heavier
showers and a few thunderstorms will come this evening and overnight
as low-level moisture increases across the region. Severe storms are
not anticipated. Otherwise, south winds between 10-15 mph are
expected today with gusts to 20-30 mph at times into this evening.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and low 70s for most areas
today with localized readings in the mid/upper 70s close to Saginaw
Bay. Southerly low-level flow advecting a warm, moist airmass
northward will keep mild temperatures in place tonight with lows in
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Midlevel longwave ridging with its axis currently centered over the
northern Plains and an upstream shortwave over the northern
Rockies will transition the Great Lakes region to a wetter
pattern this weekend. Surface low pressure attached to the
aformentioned low pressure will continue showers and storms at
the start of the long term.

After another brief return of high pressure early next week, heights
lower across the northern half of the CONUS and support a
quasi- wetter pattern for the second half of the long term.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Showers and thunderstorms continue through Saturday. A few
 strong storms will be possible: Aformentioned midlevel
 troughing and surface low pressure will have ongoing showers
 and storms at the start of the long term. Northern Michigan
 will be in the warm sector on Saturday with a cold front
 dragging across the state. Best chances of thunderstorms will
 be Saturday afternoon as diurnal heating could provide enough
 energy to generate some strong/severe thunderstorms. SPC places
 the entire CWA under a marginal risk for severe weather as new
 CAM guidance shows CAPE values around 1000 J/kg along with
 moderate shear values.

-Wetter pattern moves into the Midwest region later next week: Midlevel
 troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska will progress
 southeast and begin to build across the country next week. This
 supports a wetter pattern to return to the Great Lakes region.
 Showers at times can be expected after the Tuesday/Wednesday
 timeframe driven primarily by embedded height disturbances. Too
 early to message QPF/details, but no evidence of heavy
 rainfall or impactful weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Sprinkles/light showers to continue to blossom through the
afternoon, esp west of a TVC/APN line...though there could be a
brief break in the action for MBL based on upstream trends. Embedded
ts possible, esp after 6z...with some signals for a more vigorous
round of ts toward daybreak ahead of a cold front. SW 30+kt winds at
or above 1500-2000ft could mix down at times...but primarily
expected to remain LLWS overnight, till the front moves through in
the morning. Cigs to fall through afternoon to MVFR...and IFR esp
after 4-6z, but could be earlier for TVC/PLN/CIU with rain around.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF