382
FXUS63 KAPX 141732
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
132 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny skies, mild temperatures today.

- Temperatures begin to build this weekend through the entirety
  of the long term. Watching for potential record breaking highs
  by midweek next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Northwesterly flow returning to the Upper Great Lakes this morning
in the wake of yesterday`s cold front, now poised across the OH
Valley. PV niblet slipping by to our north over Ontario...dragging a
subtle trough/cold front into the EUP; remainder of this trough
extends back up into the Canadian Prairies ahead of strengthening
ridge axis over the western US. Meanwhile...vort max over WI beneath
left exit region of a 100+kt upper level jet with attendant band of
mid clouds...and even a few sprinkles this morning upstream over WI.
Otherwise...generally quiet over the region...and much cooler/drier
than yesterday, with pwats much closer to, or even slightly below,
normal. 850mb temps near or slightly below zero to our northeast
over Ontario.

Anticipating trough axis to our northeast to slip across the
area...but upstream warm advection should help the ridge axis
prevail today/tonight...with general high pressure as a result. NW-
SE oriented PV max over WI should slowly slip southeastward
today...keeping some potential for mid-clouds around NW Lower
through the remainder of the afternoon and perhaps beyond. Not
expecting much in the way of precip from this mid-cloud deck, given
generally dry atmosphere...though some sprinkles and/or light rain
should make it to the ground (already seeing -RA in the KFKS
(Frankfort) 1335z ob...with Frankfort area webcams showing some
signs of virga/rain shafts). Presence of PV niblet to our northeast
/may/ prevent lake breeze development along the Lake Huron
coast...but already seeing winds veer at coastal observing sites
near APN as we begin to warm up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing stretching from Hudson Bay down over the Great
Lakes will continue to progress eastward today as the associated
surface cyclone treks northeast across Quebec. Increasingly
amplified ridging will fold over the region tonight, providing
subsidence aloft that will build surface high pressure from the
northern Great Plains overhead by Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Sunny skies, mild temperatures today -- Quiet weather is in store
for northern Michigan today and tonight as aforementioned high
pressure builds into the region. North winds will advect cooler,
drier air into the region today with sunny skies in place underneath
subsidence aloft. Winds aren`t expected to gust as high as they did
Thursday, but gusts to around 20 mph will be possible at times
through the afternoon. Highs look to warm into the mid to upper 70s
for most areas today with slightly cooler temperatures anticipated
across the eastern U.P. and along the immediate lakeshores. Calm
winds and clear skies will lead to efficient radiational cooling
tonight, allowing for overnight temperatures to drop well into the
40s across interior northern lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Weak midlevel long wave troughing over the northern half of North
America continues the pattern of mostly quiet weather with chances
of showers at times. Upstream midlevel shortwave riding over the
Pacific northwest will begin to build and progress across the
country, eventually causing surface high pressure to deliver
clear/sunny skies and pleasant weather for the weekend.

Aformentioned riding will continue to occupy the eastern half of
North America and allow for temperatures to surge well above
normal across the Great Lakes region for mid June. Embedded
height disturbances and the advection of a (somewhat) humid air
mass to the region will continue chances of showers at times
next week, but impacts regarding precipitation remain low.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Temperatures begin to build this weekend through the entirety
 of the long term. Watching for potential record breaking highs
 by midweek next week: Aformentioned midlevel ridging with an
 embedded jet maxima will begin to advect northward and reach
 the southern shore of Hudson Bay by the Wednesday timeframe.
 Biggest story of the long term is the well advertised incoming
 heat as surface temperatures slowly climb throughout the
 entirety of the forecast period. Warmest days for the CWA
 remain Monday through Thursday as daytime highs are expected to
 surge into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations. One
 issue that could tamper temperatures next week is the potential
 of convective storms at times, mixing warm surface
 temperatures with cooler low level temps. Guidance continues to
 keep H8 temperatures around 20 degrees Celsius, so proper
 mixing with a potential MCS or even strong enough winds could
 greatly reduce forecasted high temperatures. As for
 precipitation impacts, no heavy rainfall or severe weather is
 expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Winds generally NW-NE at 5-15kt, gusting 15-20kts...as we mix higher
than expected today. Decent cu field trying to hold on this
afternoon, but struggling...cigs could drop periodically to
SCT/BKN040, to perhaps as low as SCT030. Onshore lake breezes
developing...esp south of KAPN along the Lake Huron coast, though
KAPN could get in on this as well through afternoon. Expecting winds
to diminish/skies to clear tonight...as high pressure slips
overhead. Have gone ahead and included mention of fog/br at MBL
overnight, though possible this could develop at other TAF sites
including CIU, APN in particular. Nothing widespread expected,
though. Winds become more E/SE Saturday AM, eventually shifting to
SW toward end of TAF period or beyond...with increase in mid/high
clouds from W to E through the day.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF