065
AXNT20 KNHC 070520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow
aloft and ample tropical moisture surging northward continues to
generate a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
affecting the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and the
Bahamas. The storm activity can produce dangerous lightning, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds. The soils remain saturated,
therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. The
rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba will be influenced heavily by
daytime heating, the local sea breezes, and the mountain upslope
lifting. Mariners should use caution due to the reduced
visibilities in heavy rain, frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds
near gale force during the strongest storms and suddenly higher
seas. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your
local weather forecast office for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 11N, and
moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 37W and
46W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 11N,
and moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 09N and between 47W and 51W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 14N, and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is
occurring in the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N22W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 06N38W, then from 06N40W to 07N48W
and then from 07N50W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 05N to 11N and east of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure system in the central Atlantic extends
weakly into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining generally dry
conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh
to locally strong northerly winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

Hazy skies continue across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche
due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central
America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal
observation sites in the western and southern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will support mainly gentle to
moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh
near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central
America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of
days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the
SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola.

The aforementioned ridge over the central Atlantic dominates the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds south of 16N and east of 71W.
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. In the rest of the central,
eastern and NW Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are evident. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail in the SW Caribbean.

Hazy skies continue in the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural
fires in western Central America. However, conditions have
improved during the last few days.

For the forecast, a deep layered upper-level trough from the W
Atlantic to Puerto Rico will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with
associated showers and thunderstorms shifting from the north-
central basin across the NE Caribbean and into the Atlantic
through tonight. A second upper trough from Florida to the NW
Caribbean will support active thunderstorms across the NW basin
through the weekend. A center of high pressure located SE of
Bermuda with associated ridge extending across the E Caribbean
will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade winds over
the SE basin through Fri. These winds will gradually shift across
the south-central Caribbean through the weekend as high pressure
continues to build across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft and ample tropical moisture result in moderate
scattered to isolated strong convection south of 27N and west of
70W. The strongest storms are affecting the SE Bahamas and surrounding
waters. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is
under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure system centered
over the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and seas of 3-4 ft are occurring off NE Florida. Elsewhere
west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

Farther east, a 1015 mb low pressure is located near 29N45W and a
cold front extends from the low to 24N51W, followed by a surface
trough to 21N61W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring east of
these features to 35W and north of 25N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the
area described. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are
noted south of 20N and west of 30W due to the pressure gradient
between the broad ridge to the north and lower pressures in the
ITCZ. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.

A cold front is crossing the Canary Islands in the NE Atlantic,
but no significant convection is noted near the boundary. Moderate
N-NE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are evident behind the front.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present
from 15N to 23N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a deep-layered upper trough across the W Atlantic
extending from near Bermuda to Puerto Rico will shift E-NE across
the region through Fri, maintaining active thunderstorms E of
the upper trough. A second upper trough from Florida to the NW
Caribbean will support active thunderstorms from central Cuba
northeastward across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic S of 25N
through Fri, then shift slowly eastward over the weekend. Weak
high pressure will begin to build across the basin tonight, then
shift slowly E-NE through the weekend. A weak front will move
into the far NW waters Sat and stall there then lift north of the
area Sun.

$$
Delgado