Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds over
the south-central Caribbean. The tight pressure gradient between
high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next week.
These winds will pulse to gale-force off the northwestern Colombia
coast, during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight
through early Sat morning. Seas near and just downwind of these
strongest winds are expected to reach 12 or 13 ft each early
morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

Eastern Atlantic Meteo-France Gale Warning:
A strong high pressure of 1044 mb is over the northern Atlantic
just W of the Azores near 42N34W. A tight pressure gradient
between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern
Africa is causing gale force winds, with severe gusts, in the
Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These
winds are forecast to persist through at least Fri morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Sierra
Leone border near 09N13W and extends southwestward to 00N30W.
There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. A cluster
of moderate to scattered strong convection is noted N of the
Equator between 06W and 14W. This convective activity is affecting
parts of Liberia, especially the coastal waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a weak low pressure of 1018 mb is analyzed near
25N96W, along a frontal boundary that extends across N Florida
into the Gulf region. A cold front stretches from the low center
to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are likely occurring
along the front and near the low center. The pressure gradient
between the front and strong high pressure to the N supports fresh
to strong winds over the northern Gulf where seas are in the 5 to
7 ft range. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak
surface ridge stretching west-southwestward from south Florida to
the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft
seas are found at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle
to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary that is nearly
stationary from N Florida to the low center will drift N and
gradually dissipate into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are expected N of the front into tonight. Over the weekend,
high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build weakly
into the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale
Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A 1025 mb high pressure located just SW of Bermuda near 29N68.5W
extends a ridge across South Florida and the Greater Antilles. The
most recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean, and moderate to locally fresh trades over
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate NE winds are noted in the Windward
Passage as well as in the lee of eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas exist in the northwestern basin,
except the Gulf of Honduras where fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft are seen. The highest seas of 8 to 12 ft are near the coast of
Colombia, 6 to 8 ft dominate the remainder of the central
Caribbean while seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the eastern Caribbean.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.

For the forecast, high pressure centered N of the region will
build southward and strengthen into Sun, causing fresh to strong
trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to
expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin, as well
as the Gulf of Honduras. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force
nightly offshore Colombia through at least Fri night. Winds and
seas will begin to gradually diminish over the eastern Caribbean
Sun night through Mon as Atlantic high pressure retreats to the
NE.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Meteo-France Gale Warning.

A cold front is just off NE Florida. Currently, fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft follow the front. A 1025 mb
high pressure is ahead of the front located near 29N68.5W, and
extends a ridge towards the Greater Antilles. Light and variable
winds are under the influence of this system while moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds are noted along the southern periphery
of the ridge, particularly S of 22N and W of 60W where seas are in
the 4 to 6 ft range. A 1020 mb low pressure is situated near
28.5N59W, with a trough extending S to near 21N59W. The surface
low is supported by a deep layered upper- level cyclone that is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms over the waters
from 23N to 30N between 52W and 58W. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast area is dominated by strong high pressure of 1044 mb
centered just W of the Azores. Further S across the tropical
Atlantic, moderate trades prevail, with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough along 59W N of 21N
will drift E into the weekend. A 1025 mb high pressure centered
over Bermuda extends a ridge SW to south Florida. The ridge will
begin to shift S today and allow a cold front to sink SE into the
NW waters. The front is expected to stall along 29N early Fri then
gradually dissipate into the weekend. Strong high pressure N of
the front will induce freshening trade winds south of the front
and strong NE to E winds across the NE waters Fri through Sun,
before diminishing.

$$
GR


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