Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 251734

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N16W to 02N28W to 01N40W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N-03N
between 21N-24N, and from 01S-01N between 48W-51W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from the Equator to 02N between



As of 1500 UTC, the cold front that was previously moving across
the Gulf of Mexico has reached western Cuba and the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered showers and tstms are noted along the frontal
boundary. The front is forecast to become diffuse tonight. Weak
high pressure of 1019 mb now dominates most of the gulf region
with mainly a gentle to moderate anticycloninc flow. Another
weak cold front will reach the Texas coast tonight, and move
across the northwest and north-central waters Thu and Thu night,
then over the eastern gulf late Thu night through Fri night as it
slows down. This front will then exit the southeast gulf on Sat
followed by weak high pres that will become centered over the
northwest gulf. The high pres will slide eastward to the far
north-central gulf by Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
will follow the front early on Thu.


A weak cold front has reached western Cuba and the Yucatan
Channel. Currently, scattered showers and tstms are noted in
association with the frontal boundary. The front is forecast to
become diffuse tonight. A surface trough is analyzed over the
eastern Caribbean along 63W. Patches of low level clouds with
embedded showers are in the wake of the trough currently affecting
the Lesser Antilles where light showers have been reported.
Moisture associated with this through is forecast to move across
Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands early on Thu increasing
the likelihood of showers.

Latest satellite derived winds and seas and an ASCAT pass reveal
moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with
the exception of fresh to strong trades within 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are evident elsewhere
across the Caribbean as well as across the tropical N Atlantic
waters. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong over the
central Caribbean the next couple of nights. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades will continue through the period.


As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N75W southwest to
western Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are noted in a band
well ahead of the front. Similar convective activity is also
noted across the Straits of Florida, but it is forecast to
diminish by this afternoon as a cooler air mass invades the area.
The front will stall and dissipate tonight, particularly W of the

A second weak cold front will move over the northwest waters Fri
night. This front will reach from near 31N72W to the Straits of
Florida Sat night, and from near 31N66W to 25N72W to west-central
Cuba by Sun night. Weak high pressure will build across the area
behind the front, with generally gentle to moderate west to
northwest flow expected in the wake of this front.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N46W and continues
SW to near 27N62W. Scattered showers and tstms are noted within
about 90 nm SE of the front N of 28N. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are ahead of the front, and moderate to fresh NE-E winds
are blowing behind the front based on scatterometer data. The
front is associated with a weak 1018 mb low pressure located N of
area near 33N45W. This low is expected to move into the forecast
waters early on Thu. The remainder of the Atantic Ocean is under
the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located over the Azores
near 37N25W.

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