Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 182357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
A strong, late season cold front is moving across the north-
central Gulf and extends southwest into the Bay of Campeche.
Clusters of thunderstorms accompany the front off the Mississippi
and Louisiana coasts. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
east of the front over the north central Gulf through late tonight.
The cooler and drier air will funnel southward along the
mountainous terrain of the Mexico, supporting sustained gale force
winds off the central coast of Veracruz this evening through
Friday morning. After the front passes, brief gale force winds
will occur in the northeast Gulf on Friday afternoon. Please
refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
The cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula
Friday night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of
the front N of 27N and W of 70W by Friday afternoon along with
numerous thunderstorms. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas
Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at
08N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04S29W to
05S38W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is seen near the ITCZ from 02N-10S and west of 20W to the coast of
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line is swiftly moving across the northern and central
Gulf--currently extending south of Mississippi to near 27N91W.
South of this feature, the cold front enters the Gulf from south-
central Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. A 1006 mb low has
developed along the front and is near 28N94W. Frequent lightning
and gale force winds are associated with this squall line, along
with limited visibility down to 0.5-3 nm with the lowest
visibilities currently 90 nm south and east of New Orleans,
Louisiana. Some of the visibility limitations could also be due to
areas of smoke originating from agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and northern Central America encompassing much of the
western Gulf. Gale force northwesterly winds are seen behind the
front especially in the northwestern Gulf. Gale force winds are
also developing in the southwest Gulf near Veracruz. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh southeast winds are seen east of the front in
the eastern half of the basin. See above for more details on the
gale-force winds expected.

A significant cold front will move through the basin through
Friday evening with a strong line of convection out ahead of it.
The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico
late tonight, then from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Friday afternoon, moving southeast of the basin Friday
evening. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on either
side of the front, mainly in the northern, west central, and
southwest Gulf. High pres will build in from the west in the wake
of the front this weekend with return flow expected by early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers are seen moving west across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
Showers can also be seen across the Lesser Antilles. High pressure
north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh trade
winds across the Leeward and Windward Islands into the eastern
Caribbean, fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean,
fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and moderate SE
winds elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. Strong subsidence
continues to suppress any development of thunderstorms.

High pressure northeast of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sunday,
diminishing Sunday night into early next week as the high weakens.
Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish
Friday afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front
will move into the NW Caribbean by Friday night, then weaken and
become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are
expected in the wake of the front Friday night and Saturday,
highest near the Yucatan Channel.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends to the southwest from 31N44W to 25N60W. A
dying stationary front extended to the west from 25N60W to 25N67W.
A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N46W to 25N51W. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms are within 70 nm of the front. Scattered
showers are also moving north of the Cape Verde Islands toward the
coasts of Morocco and Mauritania. Otherwise, high pressure
dominates across the waters due to a 1030 mb high off the New
England coast near 41N62W, and a 1025 mb high near 33N25W. See
above for the expected gale-force winds.

Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters tonight
and Friday ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida
peninsula Friday night. The front will extend from 31N73W across
the central Bahamas to Cuba Saturday evening, and from 31N69W to
the SE Bahamas Sunday evening, then stall and dissipate Monday
night through Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR


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