Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 252341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A rapidly intensifying low pressure system centered over the
north-central Atlantic supports a cold front currently extending
along 31-32N. This front will enter the forecast waters along
by early Monday. A strong pressure gradient between this low and
surface ridging to the west-southwest will lead to the development
of gale-force winds north of 30N east of 40W. Gale conditions are
forecast to prevail through Tuesday morning. For more details,
refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers


The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 05N09W and
continues to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01S-05N between 15W-25W and from 03S-04N W of 40W.



Deep layer dry air prevails across much of the basin, except for
the far western Gulf where middle to upper level moisture is being
advected from the EPAC by southwesterly flow. CIRA microwave
imagery at the lower level show shallow moisture in the same
region of the Gulf, which is being advected from the Caribbean by
southeasterly wind. This moderate low level moisture is allowing
for the continuation of dense fog and haze N of 27N W of 90W. With
ridging anchored in the SW N Atlc, moderate return flow dominates
across the basin, except in the Bay of Campeche where latest
scatterometer data show fresh SE winds. By early Monday, a low
pressure center will develop over eastern Texas, thus
transitioning a stationary front into a cold front forecast to
extend from the Florida Panhandle SW to Brownsville, Texas by
Monday night. The front will stall again shortly thereafter and
then lift northward along the Gulf coast through Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and and tstms will accompany this boundary.


Stable and fair weather conditions reign in the western half of
the Caribbean as deep layer dry air prevails. However, the eastern
half of the basin is under the influence of a middle to upper
level low that along with shallow moisture moving across the
region support scattered to isolated showers across Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico and southern adjacent waters. With broad surface high
pressure N of the area, trades are mainly moderate, except in the
central portion of the basin where fresh winds are the norm. Along
the coast of Colombia, winds increase to strong. No major changes
expected through Tuesday.


Gale-force winds are forecast to develop over northeast Atlantic
waters by early Monday morning. See the Special Features section
above for further details. A broad surface ridge prevails across
the west and central Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high near
30N68W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the approaches of
the Windward Passage forecast to increase to fresh to strong at
night the next two days. To the east, a low pressure system over
the northeast Atlantic continues to support a cold front that
enters the area of discussion near 30N17W to 20N23W to 16N36W. The
high pressure system will remain nearly-stationary while weakening
through Tuesday morning.

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