669
AXNT20 KNHC 230501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 38W, to the south of 12N,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are observed from 05-07N
between 36W-42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 16N17W
and extends southwestward to 04N27W. The ITCZ extends from 04N27W
to 04N36W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
resumes at 04N40W to 03N49W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 02-12N east of 30.5W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the far SW Caribbean
reaching the Colombian Low. Isolated moderate convection is noted
over the far SW Caribbean S of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the Florida peninsula to the
Gulf waters from 27N83W to 30N94W. No significant convection is
depicted near the front at this time. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of 87W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of
the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light
to gentle winds prevail east of 87W. Slight seas prevail across
the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico
continues to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of
Campeche and western Gulf tonight.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front over the
northeast Gulf will dissipate tonight. High pressure will develop
across the northeast Gulf in the wake of this front and dominate
the basin through Sun, before Atlantic high pressure builds into
the Gulf Sun night and Mon and strengthens the ridge. Gentle to
moderate winds will freshen in the western Gulf starting Fri
night. E winds will pulse fresh to locally strong along and just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through
Tue night as a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are expected
to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and
western Gulf through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E
winds in the south-central Caribbean, generally S of 14N between
69-79W, where seas are rough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean as well as the Gulf
of Honduras, where seas are moderate. Moderate or weaker trades
and slight seas prevail elsewhere. Please see the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection over the SW part of
the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the Atlantic along
25N between the Bahamas and 60W and will shift NE through tonight.
High pressure across the NE Atlantic will gradually build
westward along 25N and into the Bahamas Fri through the weekend,
which will strengthen the ridge. This pattern will support fresh
to strong trade winds south of 15N through the upcoming weekend,
gradually expanding westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong across the Gulf of Honduras each evening and night
through Tue night. Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean and
tropical Atlantic will freshen tonight into the weekend, with
large swell over the Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands
starting Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave
currently over the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N72W and
extends to 27N80W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N70.5W to
25N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of
these features and W of 65W. Moderate SW winds prevail E of the
front to 63W. To the E, another surface trough extends from
31N48W to 24N61W.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1033 mb high centered near the
Azores extends a ridge across much of the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic away from the aforementioned frontal boundary and trough.
Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas ongoing off the coast of
Morocco as well as through the Canary Islands, generally N of 18.5N
and E of 22W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across much of the Atlantic S of 20N, as well as from 07-31N
between 22-40W. The remainder of the Atlantic N of 20N and W of
40W away from the frontal boundaries is seeing moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

A plume of Saharan Dust continues to be very evident over the E
Atlantic on satellite imagery. The highest dust concentrations
are noted E of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from
31N71W to West Palm Beach, Florida will dissipate across the
northern Bahamas through early Fri. The subtropical ridge will
build westward along 26N-27N into the region late Fri and Sat. The
resultant pressure gradient south of the ridge will support fresh
winds south of 22N, mainly along the northern coast of Hispaniola
through early next week. A series of weak frontal troughs will
sweep eastward across the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda early next week.

$$
KRV