530
AXNT20 KNHC 081803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Bay of Campeche (AL91): An elongated area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show
this system does not yet have a well-defined center, but is
producing winds of 40 kt on its western side. Seas near this low
pressure are moderate to rough. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast
to move generally northwestward and then northward near or along
the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with
additional strengthening possible by the middle of this week.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and
Louisiana coasts should closely monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of
the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this
afternoon or tonight, with additional watches possible along the
coast of Texas and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. This
disturbance has a HIGH chance of tropical formation in the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from NW
Florida to a 1005 mb low pres in the NW Gulf near 24N96W. A
surface trough extends south of the low to the SW Gulf. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 24N to 29N and between 85W
and 96W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed near gale to gale
force winds over the western Gulf, with the highest winds around
40 kt in the SW Gulf. Peak seas of up to 21 ft are occurring near
the 40 kt winds. Gale force winds are forecast to persist in the
W-central and SW Gulf zones through at least tonight. Beyond that,
conditions will be dependent on what occurs with the broad area
of low pressure (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche. Very large seas
are forecast to persist across these areas through the early part
of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with
an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
continue to show signs of organization. Fresh to strong force
winds are found north of the center. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system over the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression is now likely to form during that time while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the
middle of this week the system should begin moving more westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week. This system has a
MEDIUM chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a
HIGH change through the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection near this wave is
associated with AL92.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of 22N,
moving 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 14N30W to a 1010 mb low pres (AL92) near 13N43W and to
12N53W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N53W to 16N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 07N to 16N and east of 37W.
Similar convection is found within 120 nm on both sides of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 50W and 63W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on LOW
PRES (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING in
the western Gulf waters.

In the rest of the Gulf, generally dry conditions are prevalent,
along with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas..

For the forecast, a stationary front from Panama City Florida to
across the northern waters to weakening 1005 mb low pressure near
24N95W, then is dissipating to Tuxpan, Mexico. Gale force winds
persist off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, with
rough to very rough seas. Numerous thunderstorms are active
farther south over the western Bay of Campeche associated with a
developing low pressure area near 20N94W. This system is forecast
to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days as the system moves generally
northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Interests along
the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, expect
continued strong winds and rough seas over much of the western
Gulf through the at least mid-week. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a
TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean.

Elsewhere, the interaction between an upper level trough that extends
from the Bahamas to Central America and the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough results in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters, especially south of
15N. The storm activity is also impacting Panama. Farther east, a
few showers are found in the NE Caribbean, affecting the nearby
islands. Generally drier conditions are noted in the rest of the
Caribbean.

A 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States
extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds in the central and NW Caribbean. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle easterly winds and slight
seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean
will reach Hispaniola by early Mon, then continue to move across
the central and western Caribbean through the end of the week.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and offshore Honduras, reaching strong speeds
in the Gulf of Honduras this evening into early Mon. Mainly
gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to
moderate seas will prevail across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on low pressure
(AL92).

Divergence aloft and surface trough over central Florida support
scattered showers in the waters off NE Florida, especially north
of 30N. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by the
subtropical ridge, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of
4-7 ft. Farther east, a weak surface trough extends from a 1019 mb
low near 31N44W to 30N52W. A few showers are seen near the trough
axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
a strong high pressure system near 50N37W, maintaining moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a few thunderstorms remain active along
a trough off northeast Florida. A cold front offshore of the
Carolinas will push S of 31N Mon evening merging with the trough
and then stalling offshore NE Florida through mid-week. Expect
increasing winds and seas behind the cold front. Across the
remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to
moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to
locally fresh winds are forecast through Mon. Mainly moderate seas
will prevail through mid-week.

$$
Delgado