Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221015

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are near the N
coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 74W-76W. Seas are 9-12 ft.
After 12Z Monday morning, winds will subside below gale force.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 03N-16N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N-09N between

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 06N-21N.
This wave is completely embedded within the middle of a strong
outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-19N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 03N-08N between
52W-58W, including over portions of Suriname and Guyana.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers around
Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 03N-17N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, and Panama, S of 10N.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ begins near 07N23W to 08N32W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N35W to 07N45W. The ITCZ
resumes W of another tropical wave near 07N48W to the coast of
Suriname near 06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate convection is within
180 nm S of the ITCZ between 25W-30W.


Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
29N. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 16N-19N between 92W-95W.
In the upper levels, a small upper level low centered over the SE
Gulf near 25N86W is enhancing convection. Isolated moderate
convection is from 25N-27N between 87W-89W. Isolated moderate
convection is over the E Gulf E of 85W. Similar convection is over
the central Gulf from 24N-26N between 90W-93W.

A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will retreat E Tuesday
night and allow a cold front to move into the northern Gulf. The
front will then stall and weaken Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue across most of the basin, except for fresh
winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan peninsula at night.


A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. Two tropical
waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.

Scattered showers are over Haiti, and N of Jamaica, from 18N-20N
between 72W-79W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean from
20N-22N between 82W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
is over the Gulf of Honduras. Further more, scattered showers are
advecting over the Windward Islands S of S of 14N and E of 65W.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through next week. Winds
along the coast of Colombia will be gale-force until 22/1200 UTC.
Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Monday


Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 27N76W to
21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-26N between
74W-77W. More scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 26N-
30N between 72W-80W. A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 27N47W. A 1024 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N21W.

Over the W Atlantic, the central Bahamas trough will reach the
waters between the Bahamas and Florida late tonight. A 29N/30N
ridge will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
across the region through Tuesday night. The ridge will start
retreating eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a trough to move
through the NW waters from Florida on Wednesday morning. Fresh to
occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night,
through the middle of next week.

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