202
AXNT20 KNHC 171008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05.5N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 05.5N22W to 03N40W and to 03.5N52W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 09N
between 02W and 20W, from 05N to 07N between 20W and 42W, and south
of 08.5N between 46W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is across the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW
Louisiana to southern Texas. A warm front extends from offshore of
Venice, Florida to SE Louisiana. A large area of heavy showers
and strong thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the
Gulf waters north of 28N, and extends inland across coastal areas
of Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. This storm complex is
being supported by moist low level southerly return flow and upper
level diffluence. The remainder of the basin is dominated by
southerly return flow, occurring between a weak Atlantic ridge
extending westward into the central Bahamas, and low pressure
across east and southeast Mexico.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong SE
winds in the south-central Gulf waters, especially south of 26N
and between 84W and 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident in the rest of
the western half of the Gulf, especially west of 90W. Seas in the
area described are also 4-6 ft. Mariners are advised that stronger
winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the more intense
storms moving into the NE basin. Elsewhere in the basin, light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze
and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America
continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue to lift northward
and inland through late today, with strong thunderstorms ahead of
it. The stationary front across the Texas coastal waters will
meander there today before shifting E across the northern Gulf
tonight through Mon, supported by a series of upper-level
disturbances moving from W to E. This will maintain active weather
over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except
pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay
of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into
early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile,
areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico
continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 25N to the
central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge north
of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in the deep tropics is
resulting in fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras,
where seas have built to 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the south- central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural
fires in Central America continues across areas of the NW
Caribbean, where smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sink southward to
24N-25N through Sun night. This pattern will maintain strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale-
force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, smoke due
to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of
the northwestern Caribbean, and will continue reducing the
visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N67W and
continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery within 90 nm
east of the front, to the east of 73W. Moderate to fresh S-SW
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found ahead of the front to 60W and
north of 28N. A weak high pressure pattern dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting light
to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

A broad ridge over the far north Atlantic is the most prominent
feature in the central and eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of
35W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted off the coast of
Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move slowly
eastward, and shift east of 55W by Mon. Active weather is expected
to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds
ahead of the front will continue through this afternoon, then
become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish
further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W
along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters
offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move SE and
weaken through Tue.

$$
Stripling