296
AXNT20 KNHC 222338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): A broad low pressure area
is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with a mean
1006 mb center near 22N96W. Just a few hours ago, a gale warning
was issued for the central and SW Gulf waters south of 26N and
west of 94W, including the offshore waters from Tampico to
Veracruz based on an afternoon ASCAT satellite pass that showed
northwest to north gale winds of 30 to 35 kt over these waters.
Seas with these winds were 9 to 11 ft. These winds are forecast
to diminish to below gale-force at 0000 UTC tonight. Satellite
imagery shows decreasing scattered showers and thunderstorms over
most of the central Gulf waters from 22N to 26N west of 87W to
inland Mexico, where the activity becomes numerous in coverage.
In its wake, increasing numerous moderate to strong convection is
vividly noted over the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity reaches
the adjacent coastal waters of the NW side of the peninsula.
Winds near the mean low center are mostly at fresh to strong
speeds, with seas of about 7 to 9 ft.

Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form before the system reaches the coast of
northeastern Mexico Sun night. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of
northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the end of the
weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Suny, if necessary. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours and in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W
from 03N to 15N, moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to near the
ITCZ from 08N to 10N between 33W and 39W. This convection is
likely being enhanced by the nearby ITCZ segments.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
21N50W to 12N52W to inland Brazil near 03N51W. It is moving
westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm west of the wave axis from 11N to 14N. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are from 04N to 08N between 50W and 54W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is just of the Windward
Islands, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The 1200 UTC upper-air data
from Trinidad and Tobago and that of Barbados greatly assisted
with the position of this wave. The 1800 UTC position is based on
continuity in keeping the same forward motion as earlier.
Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and
within 60 nm east of the wave axis south from 09N to 12N.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
northeast Venezuela and over Guyana from 06N to 09N between 59W
and 61W. ons of NE Venezuela.

An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south
of 18N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave over Colombia
from 09N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is west of the
wave to Jamaica, and north of 17N to approaches to the Windward
Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
and continues southwestward to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from
09N20W to 06N35W, and begins again at 06N40W to 07N49W. Aside
from convection described above in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 30W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL93 that is over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Relatively weak high pressure is over the area. Outside of the
influence of AL93, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over
the Gulf west of 90W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 10 in east
to southeast swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the
range of 4 to 7 ft remain elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, outside of the influence of AL93, winds and
seas east of 90W will diminish to gentle to moderate and slight
seas tonight and to light to gentle speeds on Sun through Wed.
Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun afternoon into
Mon as the low pressure system moves inland across Mexico. Weak
high pressure will reside over the east-central Gulf Tue and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough extends from
Honduras and Nicaragua across the waters to Colombia. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to
13N west of 76W to over Costa Rica and northern Panama ,
including inland over Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
north of 18N west of 75W, including Cayman Basin and Yucatan
Channel.

Latest ASCAT satellite data passes revealed moderate to fresh
trade winds over the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate
trades elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the central Caribbean and
3-5 ft elsewhere. Seas may peak to 6 ft near the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula over the far northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and
moderate seas over the NW Caribbean tonight will diminish to
moderate speeds on Sun and then prevail through Thu, except for
pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through
Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the
eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to
strong speeds at night near the coast over the south- central
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The western Atlantic wind regime is under the influence of a
1023 mb high pressure center located west of Bermuda. Latest
ASCAT satellite data passes indicate moderate or weaker trade
winds across the basin west of 40W. Trade winds are moderate to
fresh east of 40W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the basin, except 8
to 9 ft in an are of northeast swell from 13N to 21N east of 38W.

A surface trough extends from near 28N49W to 23N51W. An area
of increasing scattered moderate convection is to the southeast
of this trough from 21N to 26N between 44W and 50W. This activity
is being enhanced by divergence aloft present east of a nearby
upper-level low. Another surface trough extends from 29N57W to
25N63W. No significant convection is occurring with this trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh southeast winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of 75W
tonight as low pressure persists near the SE U.S. coast, then
become fresh from the south to southwest in direction Sun night
through Mon as the low pressure moves northward. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across
the region through Sun night. High pressure north of the region
will build SW into the NW Bahamas Sun night through Tue, then
shift NE and weaken through Thu. Winds and seas will increase
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles starting on Mon due to
an approaching tropical wave.

$$
Aguirre