Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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508 FXUS61 KBGM 250714 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 314 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The rest of tonight will be cool and clear with patchy valley fog over Delaware river basin. Tuesday will be mainly sunny and warmer, with temperatures back up into the 80s. Wednesday has a chance at seeing scattered severe thunderstorms once again with best chances in the Southern Tier and Northeast PA during the afternoon and evening hours. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 115 AM Update... Skies are clear across the region with winds becoming light and variable. Temperatures are dropping a bit more than forecasted, with some of the cooler rural valley locations already in the lower 50s. Areas east of Binghamton which did not see much sunshine today, and therefore did not warm up and dry the ground out are seeing valley fog forming...this includes the valleys of Otsego and Delaware counties. From Binghamton west, it does not appear much, if any fog will form tonight, as overnight lows do not reach the crossover temperatures in most cases. 725 PM Update... Updated the wind and wind gust forecast to match current observations. As a low level jet moves out of the area, wind gusts are expected to decrease through the next few hours. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. 145 PM Update... Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting 45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as drier so fog formation will be tough. Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon. Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there is better chances as showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 310 AM Update... Cold front continues to move through Wednesday night as surface low pressure system tracks east. The track of the low will determine the amount of instability that will be present overnight. At this time model guidance suggests conditions will wind down with some elevated instability lingering. Therefore rain showers are mainly expected with possible elevated thunderstorms. Behind the front temperatures will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight. As the upper level trough tracks east model guidance shows a potential wave of moisture moving through on Thursday. This may allow the chances for some showers to continue through Thursday morning although NBM kept conditions dry for now. Otherwise better chances for dry conditions is Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper level ridge attempts to build in with high pressure at the surface. Temperatures are expected to range in the 70s for CNY with some areas in NEPA climbing into the low 80s. With clear skies temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 40s to low mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 310 AM Update... High pressure centers over our region on Friday allowing calm and dry conditions to continue. Another system approaches from the west just in time for the weekend as upper level trough dips into our area. This increases chances for showers and storms Saturday and Sunday, possibly into Monday as well if upper trough is slow to move out. Upper ridge and surface high looks to build back in on Tuesday with drier conditions returning. Temperatures during this period are expected to range in the 70s to mid 80s during the day with overnight lows fluctuating with some nights in the 50s and some in the 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 140 AM Update VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies are nearly completely clear over the region currently. Valley fog is forming over the eastern counties where it is already cooler and humidity levels remain high. For our taf sites, there is a slight chance (10-20%) for patchy fog to form near RME over the next several hours, as overnight lows approach the crossover temperature (55F) here. ELM looks to remain above their crossover temperature of 49F, even with the clear skies overhead, so widespread fog in the Chemung River Valley is not expected at this time. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected areawide for most of the day today. Some mid level clouds will approach toward sunset and into the evening hours. There is a chance for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms after 00z, mainly for the NY terminals; but confidence was too low to include in the tafs this far out in time. Will monitor trends in the latest model guidance/CAMS. Outlook... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms; especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...KL/MJM