Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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956 FXUS61 KBGM 231339 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 939 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the region today, as a cold front approaches the area. Some storms may produce damaging winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. The front will push through the area tonight, bringing relief from the heat and humidity to start the week. Showers and thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 940 AM update... Overall little change to the previous forecast. So far there has been clearing across much of the area with temperatures rising into the 80s already. CAPE values are creeping up over 1000 for most unstable but there is still some capping as a few showers that have developed SW of us have struggled to get any height to them. The cold front is crossing Lake Erie and moving into western NY so we have a few more hours of heating to go. CAMs have been a bit less aggressive on convection but looking at the soundings it seems that there is a dry bias in them compared to observed dew points and if the surface obs are put in, there is more CAPE and less capping in the forecast soundings so that will be something that is going to be monitored ahead of convective initiation. 400 AM Update: Surface analysis places a low over Lake Huron with a wavy quasi- stationary front across Lake Ontario and the Mohawk Valley. With warm moist air overrunning the front, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms have been moving across Lake Ontario and much of northern NY. A few stronger storms have developed near the Mohawk Valley, including a severe thunderstorm which produced 1.25 inch diameter hail in northern Oneida County earlier. Upper level flow is mostly zonal across the northeastern US, with a sharp upper level trough over the upper Great Lakes. Weak disturbances embedded in the westerly flow continue to move through the area, helping to trigger the odd convective cell across Central NY and NEPA now and then, but it`s been mostly quiet south of the Thruway for the past several hours. Models show a leading shortwave trough will move into western NY/PA late this morning, pushing east of the area by early evening. This feature will be the main trigger for widespread showers and thunderstorms from late this morning into the evening hours. At the surface, increasing SW flow will be in place, and with no strong surface forcing, CAMS indicate thunderstorms will form in several clusters or bands by the afternoon across the CWA. Eventually, a prefrontal surface trough will push in from the west, putting an end to convection during the evening hours. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially given 0-6km shear of 35 to 45 knots, strengthening in the afternoon, which favors eastern and southern portions of the CWA. Late in the afternoon, 0-1 km shear also increases to around 25 to 30 knots in parts of the Catskills and NEPA. However, upper air analysis shows a mid-level thermal ridge axis extending across the Appalachians. This looks to advect into the area later today, and shows up well in BUFKIT soundings as a warm/dry layer around 700-550mb especially in eastern areas of the CWA in the late morning and early afternoon hours. The warm layer does tend to modify by late afternoon/early evening, but does appear to limit lapse rates and overall instability to some extent. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, with wrap-around showers and isolated thunder continuing through Monday, along with noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-70s. As for the Heat Advisory today (Sunday)...widespread cloud cover this morning and onset of showers and thunderstorms late this morning in the western half of the CWA, it looks like we`ll fall just short of criteria except for lower elevations of NEPA and Sullivan County, NY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough will depart to the east Monday night. A few lingering showers may remain over the far NE portion of the CWA, but should clear out by pretty quickly. NW flow will fill in behind the departing trough as a ridge builds in from the SW. Clear skies and light winds should allow for radiational cooling to drop temps down into the low to mid 50s across the region. NW flow and cool temps will not stick around for long as the ridge slides eastward and the flow shifts back to WSWerly Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies during the morning hours will allow for temps to climb into the mid to upper 80s by the afternoon. At least the humidity will remain relatively low, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, so it will not feel as sweltering as it has this past week. The ridge looks to be strong enough to stymie an approaching shortwave and push precipitation north and south of the area during the afternoon and evening hours. The ridge looks to break down Tuesday night, allowing some rain showers to enter the area from the west. Temps will be warm, only cooling into the mid to upper 60s as SW flow advects more heat and moisture into the region. WAA continues through Wednesday morning, pumping in warm and very moist air. Dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s, pushing heat indices back into the 90s. This combined with a trough sliding into the region from the Great Lakes will give us our next chance for a severe weather outbreak. Currently, GFS shows 1500-2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE across the region with 0-6km bulk shear around 30-35kts. A shortwave currently looks to be the lifting mechanism to help initiate these storms, but guidance is still working out how it will play out. The cold front has been trending a little faster, now moving into the area Wednesday night. We will have to monitor this trend as a cold front passage in the late afternoon/early evening would increase severe chances. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain across the area through the night as the cold front pushes through, dissipating by the morning commute. Temps and dewpoints will fall into the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong ridge will build in behind the cold front passing through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. NW flow through the day on Thursday will push drier air into the region, with dewpoints falling through the day, bottoming out in the low 50s with temps in the 70s. The ridge axis slides east of us on Friday, warming us back up for the end of the work week and the weekend. Rain chances should hold off on Friday and Saturday as temps rise back into the 80s. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours. But widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon into the evening hours. The lacking of strong forcing at the surface makes timing difficult, with 17Z to 23Z most favored, though scattered thunderstorms are likely to linger through 03Z. Stronger storms may produce strong wind gusts and hail, though probabilities are too low to carry in TAFs. A cold front will push through late tonight, with ceilings trending down to MVFR range after local midnight and for most areas, closer to dawn. Outlook... Monday...Ceiling restrictions, mainly MVFR, but possible fuel alt, will linger into the late morning or early afternoon. Scattered showers are also expected to develop through the afternoon, especially across Central NY. Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR likely, except possible valley fog Tuesday morning. Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ040-043-044- 047-048-072. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...MPH