Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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371 FXUS64 KBMX 230801 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 301 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024 Central Alabama will be switching from a northeast to a weak northwest flow thanks to a trough amplifying over the Northeast CONUS. A weak cold front will slide from Kentucky and Tennessee this afternoon and into our area overnight into Monday morning. A pre-frontal axis of PWATs near 2 inches will move in just ahead of this. The model consensus develop isolated to scattered convection just along the front, so increased PoPs across the northern 2/3rds of the area. Not expected anything more a few storms as mid-level lapse rates will be poor with weak shear and limited forcing/convergence. As is typical this time of year, there won`t be any cool air with the front but there will be a pronounced moisture gradient, with the better moisture shifting to the southern counties by Monday afternoon. With most of the showers and storms south of the area, clouds will decrease and we will warm up quickly behind the front. Dew points will mix out some in the afternoon, but not quite as much as previous days given the increased moisture, so heat indices may reach 105 degrees in spots, especially in the south and southwest. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 301 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024 Key messages: - The heat wave continues Tuesday with temperatures near 100 degrees areawide. Humidity levels have trended downward but heat indices may still reach 105 degrees in portions of West Alabama. - Showers and storms may be strong on Wednesday with gusty winds. - After a slight respite, the heat wave returns Friday through the weekend with potential for a prolonged period of heat indices near 105 degrees. While the center of the subtropical ridge will remain centered over New Mexico and the Texas Trans-Pecos on Tuesday, weak shortwave ridging will be present over Central Alabama aloft and at low-levels. An old frontal boundary/dry line like feature will be draped somewhere near our southern and western borders. With this feature trending further south and west, have reduced PoPs for isolated convection developing near the boundary, and also lowered dew points. The dry air mass and dry ground conditions will warm efficiently, with air temperatures near 100F across much of the area. With dew points mixing out more, heat indices have trended downward but may still reach 105 in parts of West Alabama. A weak convectively enhanced shortwave in northwest flow aloft will approach the area Wednesday with weak troughing developing over the Southeast and PWATs increasing to near 2 inches. Spread in the timing and placement of this feature has increased in the guidance, with some indications of slower/westward trend in some of the guidance. PoPs have decreased slightly in East Alabama where temperatures have increased. Will continue to monitor for any upstream MCS development with typical uncertainty regarding where this occurs and any gusty wind potential with thunderstorm clusters. The trough may linger near our southeast counties with enhanced rain chances there on Thursday, while ridging begins to build back to the east over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thursday looks like the "coolest" day of the period with highs in the low to mid 90s. Strong subtropical ridging builds across the Southeast and Southern Plains Friday through the weekend while a couple weak easterly waves move near the Gulf Coast. The heat wave returns for Central Alabama but PWATs will be higher than the previous ridge, meaning more humidity and some isolated to scattered showers and storms. A prolonged period of heat indices near 105 may be setting up Friday through next weekend and beyond. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024 VFR conditions for the next 18 to 21 hours, with increasing clouds after 00z. A weak boundary will slide down into the northern sites between 3 and 6z with isolated to scattered coverage. Added in Prob30 at all sites, except MGM and TOI. May need to add in at MGM withe the next set. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions will continue through this afternoon. 20 foot winds become westerly at 4 to 6 mph. Afternoon RH values should range from 30 to 40 percent this afternoon. Overnight RH values will be above 80 percent. Scattered rain chances return tonight into Monday, with an increase in minimum RH values. RH values drop down into the 30 to 35 percent range on Tuesday in many areas. Isolated storms may be possible across the south and southwest on Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 97 72 97 68 / 10 30 10 0 Anniston 96 74 95 69 / 10 30 10 0 Birmingham 98 76 98 74 / 10 30 10 0 Tuscaloosa 98 75 97 74 / 10 30 20 0 Calera 98 76 98 72 / 0 30 20 0 Auburn 96 74 95 73 / 0 20 30 10 Montgomery 97 75 96 74 / 0 20 30 10 Troy 97 73 97 73 / 10 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32/Davis AVIATION...16