Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
126 FXUS65 KBOI 191525 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 925 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .DISCUSSION...Continuing a relatively mundane forecast with no updates this morning. Showers this afternoon mostly south of the ID-NV border, outside of our area. There is some indication that an isolated shower could form over and east of the Boise Mtns, though chances are less than 10%. The two features of interest are a trough north of our area on Sunday and a ridge building in after it early next week. Models are suggesting the trough will be too far north to raise winds or alter temps, though it wouldn`t take too much movement in the forecast track to change that. The ridge after the trough is depicted in most deterministic models and is looking to warm us up to 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VFR. Patchy fog in mtn valleys through 16Z this morning. Showers south of the ID-NV border this afternoon. Surface winds: less than 10kt. Winds at 10kft: variable 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR and partly cloudy. Surface winds less than 10 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with periods of high clouds. Afternoon surface winds W-NW 5 to 15 kt. NW gusts up to 25 kt Friday evening in the lower Snake Plain. Winds aloft W-NW 10 to 20 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...We`ll start of a prolonged stretch of dry weather under light flow aloft. A closed low working through the Desert SW will support afternoon clouds and possibly a shower along the ID/NV border today, otherwise mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures will prevail into the weekend. An uptick in W-NW flow aloft Friday and Saturday will bring increased winds to open terrain (gusts to 20 mph in spots) each afternoon. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The dry conditions continue into next week. Monday starts off with more cloud cover as a passing trough digs towards the Four Corners. Models are in agreement that the Intermountain NW will warm up through mid- week in response to a building upper ridge. This will push temperatures above normal as lower elevations reach the low 80s. Agreement in the 00Z operational models falls off beyond Wednesday with the ensemble mean favoring a continuation of warm and dry weather under a ridge of high pressure. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....DG