Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
892 FXUS65 KBOI 220204 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 804 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .DISCUSSION...No changes to current forecast with Saturday a very hot day and Sunday only a degree or so cooler but also windier, then 5 to 10 degrees cooler Monday behind a dry cold front, warming again midweek with Wednesday as hot as this weekend. A degree or two cooler Thursday, then windy and 15 to 20 degrees cooler Friday behind a significant cold front. No rain through the period. Increasing fire danger the next several days due to hot temperatures, low humidity, and occasional gusty winds. && .AVIATION...VFR. Surface winds: becoming variable 10kt or less by 22/04Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds N to NW 5-10kt, switching to SE 5-10kt around 22/06Z. Sunday Outlook...VFR. Hot temperatures will bring high density altitudes. Surface winds W-SW 10-20kt during the afternoons, light during the night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Temperatures will be hot this weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Model blends indicate a 40-80% chance of hitting 100 degrees in the Treasure Valley each day with the best chance on Saturday. These temperatures are 15-20 degrees above normal, but a few degrees shy of record highs. Clear skies and dry air will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 60s each night, helping to mitigate heat concerns. Southwest flow aloft will develop as the ridge axis shifts to our east, with breezy conditions across the higher elevations starting Saturday and increasing on Sunday. Wind gusts on Sunday will reach 25-35 mph in the higher terrain, but will be lighter in the lower elevations. An upper trough will move by to our north Sunday night and push a dry cold front through our area. This will bring locally breezy conditions Sunday night through the Snake Plain, but no chance of precipitation. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...A dry cold front will exit to our east on Monday, allowing temperatures to cool by 5-10 degrees from Sunday, but still remaining around 10 degrees above normal. West to northwest winds will be breezy behind the front, especially in the Magic Valley and in higher elevations. An upper level ridge will reamplify Tuesday and Wednesday with its axis just to our east. Temperatures will be hot once again, and although temperatures are currently forecast to reach the upper 90s, model blends indicate a 30-50% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Wednesday in the Treasure Valley. West to southwest flow aloft will bring breezy conditions especially to the higher terrain. A pattern change is anticipated late Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough moves through the Pacific NW. Temperatures will cool considerably as this system pushes a cold front through our area, with highs by Friday dropping to a few degrees below normal. However, the core of the trough is expected to remain to our north, bringing only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms to higher elevations. Winds will remain breezy as the trough moves through. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST