108
FXUS65 KBOI 211513
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
913 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...No updates to current forecast.  Warming trend
starting Monday will peak Wednesday and latest NBM has BOI
reaching 88 degrees, a little higher than before. Models
diverge after that and by Friday GFS and ECMWF are completely
out of phase. No clear preference for now.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: Light
mainly northwest to 10 kt. Winds at 10kft: N 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Light northwest winds to 10 kt.

Sunday Outlook...VFR with increasing high clouds late. Light
and variable surface winds less than 10 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Mild and dry weather
continues under light northwest flow today and Sunday. A
shortwave trough will dig southeast along the ID/MT border
Sunday night, increasing clouds and wind Sunday night into
Monday. Any chance of precipitation remains to the north and
east of the area. Monday will see dry and breezy conditions in
the wake of the trough with little change in high temperatures
from Sunday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Temperatures warm
through Wednesday as an upper ridge crosses the region. High
temperatures on Wednesday will reach about 10 degrees above
normal under an increasing southwest flow aloft. Models are in
better agreement on how to handle energy entering the NW late
Wed/Thur with a shortwave trough lifting from Oregon into the
ID panhandle. While the NBM solution remains dry at this time,
not sure it`s catching the convective potential as moisture and
heating ahead of the trough are both well above normal. If the
track/timing of this system holds, would expect to see
precipitation chances increase for Wednesday, especially across
e-central Oregon. A dry and more zonal or slightly southwest
flow follows for Thur/Fri with the potential for another trough
to move into the Pac NW next Saturday, though models vary on the
amplitude. Temperatures will pull back to around normal by the
end of next week.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG