Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
707 FXUS65 KBOI 161948 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 148 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Active and unsettled weather to continue through at least Tuesday. A broad area of low pressure will work west to east through the region, with satellite and radar imagery indicating plenty of moisture available to generate showers/thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon/evening. Hi-res model guidance is also hinting at the potential for gust winds with the strongest storms (20-40% chance of gusts over 30 mph), with peak gusts as high as 45 mph. Cloud cover will limit strong storm potential, with the highest probability of winds greater than 30 mph over south central Idaho and far southeast Oregon. The strong storm potential will wane quickly after sunset. Overnight the mid/upper level flow will begin to shift to the north and eventually northwest, with upslope enhancement anticipated across central Idaho for much of the day on Tuesday. Precip chances will hover between 60-90% Tuesday with abundant cloud cover and snow levels dropping below 10k feet. There is good agreement that another are of low pressure will drop to the southwest of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night, keeping temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A drier and seasonable stretch on tap for the end of the week and weekend. The low pressure system is expected to drift south and east of the region with dry northwesterly flow spilling in off the Pacific. This will allow for some warming, but temperatures will remain below normal through early next week. && .AVIATION...VFR, with MVFR possible in/around showers. Thunderstorms possible this evening between 22-03Z, with the highest chances south and east of a line from KBNO to KBOI. Wind gusts to 40 kt possible with the strongest storms. Terrain obscuration over central Idaho much of Tuesday. Surface winds W-NW 10kts, becoming light overnight. Winds at 10kft: SE-NE 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR, with MVFR possible in/around showers. 30-50% chance of thunderstorms this evening, with wind gusts to 40 kt possible. Best chance for thunder will be 00-03Z. Showers to continue overnight into Tuesday, with periods of MVFR possible. Surface winds: NW around 10 kt, becoming variable less than 10 kt overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM....MC AVIATION.....MC