Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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808 FXUS64 KBRO 291128 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 628 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A 500mb ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north through the weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves over the southern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will continue to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. Deep moisture in place across Deep South Texas early this morning, 0Z BRO sounding indicated 2.06 inches, is forecast to briefly move northward later this morning into the afternoon. This will lead to dry conditions across the area for today. A broad area of low pressure near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and is expected to emerge and propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche through the short term. There could be some gradual strengthening this weekend with this system but impacts to Deep South Texas will be increased chances of rainfall and increased risk of rip currents. The National Hurricane Center has a 40 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours. The influx of deep tropical moisture is expected to arrive by late this evening with PWATs approaching two inches tonight and between 2.1 to 2.4 inches on Sunday. There is a medium to high probability (40 to 70 percent) of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The best rain chances will range from 40 to 50 percent across the northern Ranchlands to around 70 percent across the Rio Grande Valley and along the coast. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through tonight with high temperatures today in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat index values are expected to approach 110 degrees again this afternoon, with some areas briefly rising above 111. However, time duration and areal coverage may be limiting factors, so for now, will cover the heat indices with a Special Weather Statement for today. The increase in cloud cover and rain chances will lead to near to slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday night through Monday courtesy of an influx of deep tropical moisture associated with a potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. From Monday night onwards, dry weather will return and prevail as the potential tropical system moves inland, the deep moisture wanes a bit, and 500 mb high pressure builds slightly south. Temperature-wise, near to slightly above normal values are forecast, with the mid-level high the main weather influence. Despite the relatively robust atmospheric moisture, heat indices through the long term forecast period are not anticipated to reach established HEAT ADVISORY criteria, so a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT will likely be the vehicle to convey the elevated heat index values daily. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Light to moderate southeast winds with a few passing low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Southeast winds will increase and become gusty later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with sct to occasionally bkn cloud decks mid-morning into the early afternoon. Gusty southeast winds later today will diminish later this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Slightly stronger winds and building seas are expected today into Sunday as a trough of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula tracks westward. As the trough approaches the eastern coast of Mexico on Sunday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for the Lower Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will develop on the Gulf waters this evening into tonight. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the Gulf waters on Sunday due to high seas. (Sunday Night through Friday) Adverse marine conditions, featuring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory, are anticipated from Sunday night through Monday due to an enhanced pressure gradient associated with a possible tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. Afterwards, generally light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur along the Lower Texas Coast as swell generated by the system subsides. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 81 91 81 / 0 20 80 30 HARLINGEN 96 78 92 76 / 0 10 70 20 MCALLEN 98 81 92 78 / 0 10 70 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 79 92 77 / 0 10 70 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 83 88 83 / 0 20 70 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 81 91 79 / 0 10 70 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...63-KC