845
FXUS64 KBRO 291744 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A 500mb ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north
through the weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves over
the southern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will continue to
prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. Deep
moisture in place across Deep South Texas early this morning, 0Z
BRO sounding indicated 2.06 inches, is forecast to briefly move
northward later this morning into the afternoon. This will lead to
dry conditions across the area for today.

A broad area of low pressure near the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula this morning and is expected to emerge and propagate
westward over the Bay of Campeche through the short term. There
could be some gradual strengthening this weekend with this system
but impacts to Deep South Texas will be increased chances of
rainfall and increased risk of rip currents. The National Hurricane
Center has a 40 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours.
The influx of deep tropical moisture is expected to arrive by late
this evening with PWATs approaching two inches tonight and between
2.1 to 2.4 inches on Sunday. There is a medium to high probability
(40 to 70 percent) of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The best
rain chances will range from 40 to 50 percent across the northern
Ranchlands to around 70 percent across the Rio Grande Valley and
along the coast.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through tonight
with high temperatures today in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Heat index values are expected to approach 110
degrees again this afternoon, with some areas briefly rising above
111. However, time duration and areal coverage may be limiting
factors, so for now, will cover the heat indices with a Special
Weather Statement for today. The increase in cloud cover and rain
chances will lead to near to slightly below normal temperatures on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
over portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday
night through Monday courtesy of an influx of deep tropical
moisture associated with a potential tropical system in the Bay
of Campeche. From Monday night onwards, dry weather will return
and prevail as the potential tropical system moves inland, the
deep moisture wanes a bit, and 500 mb high pressure builds
slightly south.

Temperature-wise, near to slightly above normal values are forecast,
with the mid-level high the main weather influence. Despite the
relatively robust atmospheric moisture, heat indices through the
long term forecast period are not anticipated to reach established
HEAT ADVISORY criteria, so a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT will
likely be the vehicle to convey the elevated heat index values
daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR Conditions are expected to continue this afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Rain chances are expected to increase near
the end of the TAF period, possibly supporting MVFR conditions
developing Sunday morning. Gusty winds are expected this
afternoon, with gusts diminishing this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Slightly stronger winds and building seas are expected today into
Sunday as a trough of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula
tracks westward. As the trough approaches the eastern coast of
Mexico on Sunday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase
for the Lower Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution conditions will develop on the Gulf waters this evening
into tonight. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the Gulf
waters on Sunday due to high seas.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
Adverse marine conditions, featuring Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution to Small Craft Advisory, are anticipated from Sunday night
through Monday due to an enhanced pressure gradient associated
with a possible tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. Afterwards,
generally light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will
occur along the Lower Texas Coast as swell generated by the system
subsides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  81  91  80 /   0  20  80  30
HARLINGEN               96  78  92  76 /   0  10  70  20
MCALLEN                 98  81  92  78 /   0  10  70  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  79  92  77 /   0  10  70  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  88  83 /   0  20  70  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  81  91  79 /   0  10  70  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...60-BE