306
FXUS61 KBTV 201737
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will bring a slim chance for some light
rain showers today. Weather conditions will become dry once
again heading into next week, but with more seasonable
temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to
lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will increase for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Friday...Skies have continued to clear today
and temperatures are rising into the mid to upper 70s. Still
watching for 80 here at BTV. No showers have developed thus far,
and think chance for some sprinkles is pretty slim. Have
continued to lower pops. Previous discussion follows.

Despite some faster flow aloft, there`s the typical river
valley fog, but also a pocket of low stratus that descended to
the surface and has become essentially fog. Several sites within
that initial low stratus are less than a quarter mile, and
these are covering thoroughfares that don`t always see this
degree of fog. So an SPS has been issued through 930am, by which
point it should be entirely burned off. Take it slow this
morning, avoid using high beams, and give plenty of space
between vehicles this morning.

An upper level low is spinning in the Gulf of Maine with
attendant surface lows to its south and east. We are on the
subsident side of low pressure, but as high pressure builds
south of Newfoundland towards Quebec Province, a backdoor front
will slide southwest. It still appears that a few pinprick
showers could develop, with a focus better chances (we`re still
talking just 20-30 percent) over Orange and Addison Counties in
Vermont. Highs will start to come down as cooler air begins to
infiltrate. Anticipate 70s to near 80 today. Overnight lows
should be cool, although there are some competing factors like
clouds, and a little bit of light southeast flow that may hang
on. Generally upper 40s to upper 50s should be the norm. On
Saturday, a little wrap around moisture from coastal low
pressure near the 40 N, 70 W benchmark may rotate into southern
Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks. Some slight chances are
shown during the day, but again, it`d amount to very little, if
any rain. Temperatures will be in the 70s across the region
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Ridging amplifies out of eastern
Canada Saturday night and Sunday eliminating shower chances.
925-850mb remain cooler than recent conditions and combines with
at least partially cloudy skies supporting temperatures around
seasonal averages with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions are highly favored
early next week with high pressure remaining over the North
Country. Model consensus is increasingly consolidating on
isolated to scattered showers Monday night through Tuesday night
as low pressure is expected to stall over the Great Lake region
pushing a boundary into northern New York. Ensembles and
deterministic continue to coalesce into a significant pattern
shift mid week onward with the North Country under a large area
of surface confluence with low pressure just west allowing for
southerly flow to efficiently transport moisture into the
Northeast. Daily precipitation chances are favored with
temperatures ranging in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Models
diverge on timing of waves, but agree that at least scattered
showers are increasing in probability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday... Winds have generally been light and
variable today and will remain that way through the period as
very light flow is in place. Some patchy valley fog may again
develop tonight after 06z. At this time best chances for fog are
at SLK and MPV, though can`t be ruled out at other sites. Any
fog that forms will lift by about 13z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Neiles