860
FXUS61 KCLE 260033
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
833 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary boundary south of the area will lift north across
the region as a warm front tonight. A cold front will quickly
follow, pushing southeast across the area on Wednesday. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
800 PM Update...

As mentioned in the previous discussion, a weak wave has
resulted in scattered showers across NW PA with some light
returns present across NE OH. These showers will likely taper
off later this tonight and the next decent chance of rain will
arrive late overnight into early morning. No changes needed with
this update outside of making small adjustments to PoPs for
this evening based on radar and high res guidance trends.

Previous Discussion...

A lull in precip has commenced across the area
as the morning convective complex has dissipated over the
region, with a largely stable and subsident environment in place
across the local area. The evening should remain fairly dry for
most of the area, with some chances for a shower or storm
mainly across northeast OH and northwest PA as a weak wave moves
southeast across the lower Great Lakes.

Attention turns to the late overnight period, when upstream
convective activity may sneak back into the western part of the
forecast area into early Wednesday morning. Low confidence in
the evolution of this convection, and current thinking is most
of the activity will remain west and southwest of the area until
Wednesday morning. Lows overnight will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

More widespread convection is expected across the area through
the day on Wednesday as a cold front pushes southeast across the
area. SPC is highlighting the southeast half of the area in a
marginal risk of severe weather on Day 2, which looks reasonable
given the expected environment. There should be enough
instability and deep layer shear to support semi organized storm
clusters capable of damaging winds, especially low level lapse
rates around 8.5C/km. Highs Wednesday will be in the low 80s.

The front will clear the area to the southeast Wednesday
evening, with dry conditions and cooler temps for Wednesday
night. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A mainly quiet short term period is in store across the region as
high pressure slides east through the Great Lakes. Thursday`s
weather will bring welcomed relief from the heat with highs in the
70s to near 80. Slightly warmer weather is expected on Friday with
highs in the low to mid-80s as a warm front lifts north across the
area. Precipitation chances will begin to increase late Friday night
as an upper-level trough moves east across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concern through the long term period will be on Saturday as a
cold front moves east through the area. Favorable shear will be in
place ahead of the front to sustain organized convection, although
there remains uncertainty on the available instability given
anticipated widespread cloud cover and lingering, morning
precipitation.

Behind the front, quiet and more seasonable weather will return as
high pressure settles back in across the Great Lakes through
at least Monday. Another upper-level trough is expected to move east
across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday, though
uncertainty remains on the strength and timing of the feature for
any potential impacts to our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A few showers may clip KERI over the next couple of hours, but
otherwise expect dry weather and VFR conditions through most of
tonight. Some CAMs are suggesting some convection overnight, but
there may not be enough stability so maintained a dry forecast
until Wednesday morning when convection begins to lift northeast
from the Ohio Valley; this round may produce spotty non-VFR
visibility but there`s still some uncertainty in the placement
of showers and thunderstorms. A better chance of showers and
thunderstorms in addition to non- VFR conditions associated with
lower visibility from heavy rainfall and patchy lower ceilings
will arrive with a cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening. A few stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out
Wednesday afternoon, primarily east of a line from KCLE to KMFD.
Precipitation should begin to taper off from northwest to
southeast towards the end of the TAF period.

Expect winds out of the southwest at 6 to 12 knots through
Wednesday morning before flow begins to shift to the northwest
behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon.


Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Have extended the Small Craft Advisory across the rest of the lake
through 10 PM as wake-low winds behind the dissipating complex of
thunderstorms continue to be strong at times, with periodic offshore
gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Following this evening, a mainly quiet
marine period is in store through much of the week. A cold front
will usher in northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday evening
and overnight, but think winds should be too light to warrant any
headlines. Next opportunity for headlines could be on Saturday
behind another cold front, as winds shift towards the northwest to
north, 15 to perhaps 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Maines
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Kahn