Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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389 FXUS61 KCLE 262015 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 415 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening and early tonight. High pressure will return on Thursday and Friday before another low pressure system impacts the area on Saturday. High pressure builds back in Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level trough and associated surface low/cold front are progressing southeast across the area with the trough axis with the cold front moving southeast of the forecast area sometime this evening into early tonight. Areawide rain with isolated thunderstorms is observed right now, with rain gradually ending from northwest to souhteast this evening. A secondary cold front or surface trough moves south across the area late tonight, with allow stratus possibly building in late tonight into Thursday morning. Model guidance has been trending towards a little bit more cloud cover than previously expected for Thursday morning. There also could be patchy fog but there is less confidence with that. High pressure gradually builds in Thursday with the highs centered over the area by Thursday night. This airmass is fairly cool with highs down into the 70s Thursday afternoon (below normal by about 5-7 degrees) and then down into the 50s Thursday night. Might even see a couple spots in inland Northwest Pennsylvania dipping below 50. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the short term period will be on Saturday as a cold front moves east through the area. Favorable shear of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will be in place ahead of the front to sustain organized convection. However, a pre-frontal trough appears to arrive Saturday morning across southeast OH which could limit available instability with lingering precipitation and cloud cover. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be poor and generally less than 6 C/km. Will be something to watch over the next forecast iterations as GEFS machine learning continues to highlight the potential. Otherwise, Friday looks to be quiet as high pressure slides east into New England. Seasonable weather is expected with highs in the low to mid-80s as a warm front lifts north across the area. Precipitation chances may begin to increase late Friday night as the aforementioned system begins to enter the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period as more seasonable weather returns behind a cold front and high pressure settles back in across the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Another upper-level trough is expected to move east through the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday into Wednesday which could bring the next chance for organized convection across the area. Temperatures will begin below average in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, becoming average to above average by Tuesday into Wednesday with highs increasing into the 80s to perhaps near 90. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Areawide rain is occurring to start the TAF period with an area of thunderstorms extending from Toledo, over Lake Erie and across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Variable conditions are observed but MVFR/IFR conditions with primarily visibility are occurring within thunderstorms. Heavy rain could briefly bring visibility down to below 1SM and gusty winds and some hail are possible, primarily in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Storms gradually exit from northwest to southeast between 20-01Z this afternoon/evening. Patchy fog and low clouds may be possible late tonight into tomorrow morning. For now introduced MVFR ceilings but IFR ceilings could be possible, especially for the eastern half of the forecast area. VFR conditions expected by Thursday afternoon with some scattered cumulus clouds lingering during the afternoon hours. Winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots will persist through today before becoming light and variable after sunset. Winds will become north at 6-10 knots during the day Thursday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .MARINE... For the most part, marine conditions will be quiet through much of the week. Small craft conditions may return on Sunday behind a cold front as winds shift towards the northwest to north, 15 to 20 knots. Otherwise, a mix of generally light off and onshore flow is expected through the period. Only minor concern may be behind a cold front tonight, as winds shift towards the north with a very brief window of 15 to 20 knots possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds appear to quickly decrease back to 10 to 15 knots by late Thursday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Kahn