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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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661 FXUS64 KCRP 250539 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts. - High risk of rip currents continues through tonight. Not much change in the overall weather pattern through Tuesday with an upper level high pressure maintaining an influence on S TX weather. Models indicate the center of the high pressure will shift slightly west Tuesday with a weak inverted trough moving west around the southern periphery of the high, but the high pressure will maintain a subsident airmass across the area and keep rain chances low (5-20%). Abundant moisture will remain in the lower levels with PWATs remaining around 2 inches through Tuesday. This will maintain warm and humid conditions across S TX. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be generally in the 90s, but combined with a very humid airmass, will lead to heat indices generally from 105 to 109 across S TX. A few locations may briefly reach 110-113 in the afternoon. Swell periods have decreased to around 6-7 sec this afternoon. Despite the decrease, tide levels continue to run around 1.5 feet above normal and are currently near 2ft MSL at Aransas Pass. However, area cameras show the water not quite to the dunes. The P-ETSS keeps high tide reaching 2ft MSL over the next several days, but tide levels may remain low enough to not create minor coastal flooding. The current Coastal Flood Advisory ends at 7 pm this evening and am not planning on extending it given the low chance of minor coastal flooding at the next time of high tide Tuesday morning. As for rip currents, will continue with a high risk through tonight and moderate for Tuesday. This is due to elevated water levels in the bays and intracoastal waters continuing to exit into the gulf and creating stronger currents, especially near the jetties. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related impacts - Rain chances return late this week and into the weekend. An upper level ridge will weaken slightly and shift to the east. A few shortwaves will move along the southern periphery of the ridge, bringing a low (15-25%) chance of rain to South Texas late this week. Chances will increase to a low to moderate (15-50%) chance of rain late this weekend and into early next week as the ridge nudges further to the east and an inverted trough develops and moves across the area. Chances for heat related impacts will increase to a low to moderate risk later this week and into the weekend, with heat index values ranging from 105-114 across portions of the area. Isolated locations may even experience heat index values around 115. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail overnight at COT/LRD/CRP with MVFR expected at VCT and IFR at ALI (brief periods of LIFR possible). This will be accompanied by light southeast winds but may be variable at times generally less than 6 knots. Some light patchy fog and lower cigs will be possible near the ALI/VCT terminal late tonight through tomorrow morning. Expect ideal conditions on Tuesday with little cloud cover or precipitation (around 15%) as drier air moves into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Weak onshore flow is expected tonight through Tuesday, becoming weak to moderate by Tuesday night.. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through late this week before becoming moderate to strong Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week, but will increase late this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 20 Victoria 77 93 75 93 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 78 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 96 75 95 / 0 10 0 20 Rockport 82 92 82 93 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 79 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 77 93 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 83 90 82 90 / 0 10 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...BF/80