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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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077 FXUS61 KCTP 151410 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build southeastward into Pennsylvania this weekend, providing sunshine, seasonable temperatures and low humidity. For next week, an anomalous subtropical ridge will build over the East Coast accompanied by an extended period of hot and generally rain-free weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... In the late morning hours, already seeing fair wx cu develop over the higher terrain of the northern mountains and the Laurel Highlands. We should continue to see fair wx cu develop this afternoon, although skies will generally remain mostly sunny across the area. Canadian high pressure building southeastward into PA will provide fair weather this aftn with a good deal of sunshine, seasonably warm temps and low humidity. Dry air above a weak inversion in the model soundings suggest dewpoints will fall below NBM guidance this afternoon, so have leaned toward the drier MAV guidance. Model guidance indicates there will be some cirrus drifting into PA tonight in advance of a weak shortwave cresting the ridge axis over the Grt Lks. However, model RH profiles indicate it should be relatively thin and not significantly affect radiational cooling, which otherwise looks favorable under the surface high. Have therefore undercut NBM min temps and leaned toward the cooler MAV numbers, with lows ranging from the low 40s in the coolest northern valleys to the mid 50s in the urban centers of the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The surface high should pass east of PA Sunday, resulting in a slightly warmer return southerly flow. Model 850mb temps near 14C support highs a few degrees higher than today, with max temps ranging from the mid 70s over the mountains north of KIPT, to the low 80s most other locations. A building subtropical ridge along the east coast and the passage of a warm front early Monday will herald the arrival of much warmer early next week. Warm temps aloft should suppress convection and 850mb temps surging to near 17C supports highs Monday afternoon in the mid 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Little change with the late evening update outside of limiting chances of diurnal showers/storms on Tuesday. Have kept chances into the middle/end of the week due to some uncertainty. Prev.. Confidence is increasing for a heat wave later next week with the potential for 4-6 consecutive days of MaxT 90F+ across much/all of central PA. The prolonged nature of this heat wave may have cumulative adverse effects on vulnerable populations exposed to heat, with heat related illnesses possible if proper precautions are not taken. Outdoor workers and individuals with preexisting health conditions will be among those most at risk. Tuesday through Thursday (and potentially Friday-Saturday) are progged to be the warmest days of the week, with most guidance showing a 595-600 dm 500 hPa ridge centered over the area. Southerly flow will usher in higher dew points Tuesday that will allow for heat index values to reach 100-105 degrees over a large portion of the area. With the large high pressure system overhead, winds will be light and clouds will be few. Keep in mind that the sun angle will be at its max next week as we approach the summer solstice. The intense sun and lack of a breeze will exacerbate the impacts of heat. Beyond Thursday, uncertainty begins to develop regarding the shape of the ridge and the possibility of convection firing along the periphery of the high pressure system, but the potential for highs in excess of 90F continues through Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12z update... Any fog patches should burn off quickly by 13z, given a deep layer of dry air aloft and large-scale sinking motion. There is high confidence of VFR conditions (80-90%) for the remainder of the valid TAF period (through 12z Sunday). One small fly in the ointment could be KBFD later tonight (after 04-06z), as patchy river valley fog over northern PA could impact this site. Given the very dry air mass, confidence in this scenario (10-20%) is low enough to keep out of the TAF at this time. We`ll continue to monitor with later forecasts. Surface winds should be light (mostly under 5 kt) through 13-15z, then pick up out of the NW to 8-10 kt, before diminishing again by/after 00z. Outlook... Sat-Wed...Predominantly VFR, with building heat next week. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Evanego NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Colbert/NPB AVIATION...Jurewicz/Evanego/RXR