Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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661 FXUS63 KDLH 070544 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will end this evening, winds up to 20 mph could continue tonight. - Dry and windy conditions for Friday. - Active weather continues for the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today and Tonight: Northwesterly flow is causing average wind speeds of around 15 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph across the Northland this afternoon. The system that brought storms yesterday has since moved east, bringing faster synoptic-scale winds due to tightening pressure gradients being mixed down to the surface. Recent and current precipitation has caused high rivers to take on more, with the Nemadji and Kettle rivers at high levels. Flow is decreasing for numerous basins like the Knife, St. Louis, Nemadji, and St. Croix rivers with no major increases expected for today and tomorrow. There are spotty rain showers happening today, with more possible overnight. Severe possibilities are very minimal as CAPE values wont exceed far past 500 J/kg and dewpoints are in the high 40s. Precipitation amounts will not exceed a few tenths of an inch at most. Tomorrow: The winds are expected to slightly decrease tomorrow as the low continues to evacuate eastward, with northwesterly/westerly winds averaging in the 10-15 mph range, with some 20-30 mph gusts still possible. With the continued northwest flow aloft, a small shortwave ridge will attempt to build, however a disturbance will quickly arrive late Friday afternoon and evening with some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Overnight Friday, a moisture injection from the south and possibly the Pacific northwest will bring increases in precipitable water, increasing chances for showers and storms overnight Friday. There is very little chance for severe weather with dewpoints in the 40s and very low CAPE. This Weekend into Next Week: The departing low will cause similar conditions as today on Saturday. Diurnal showers under cyclonic flow will lead to scattered rain showers throughout the Northland. Global models are in disagreement of whether this will linger for Sunday or move off to the east. Oscillating wet and dry days will continue into next week. West to northwest flow with embedded shortwaves will lead to multiple chances for precipitation throughout the weekend. By next week, models already start to diverge on positions of upper troughs and ridges. So timing for precipitation versus dry conditions are very uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period with upper level ridging moving in on Friday. A tight pressure gradient will keep winds breezy tonight and through Friday until evening when they become lighter ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will bring some rain chances to western terminals starting late Friday evening (30-50% chance). && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 956 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Lingering isolated showers/sprinkles continue into the early overnight hours. Winds briefly fall below small craft advisory levels from late evening into tonight before increasing once again for Friday. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed in the morning. Friday will be dry, before another system brings light showers to western Lake Superior. The system will depart on Saturday and will lead to gusty conditions, but only up to 20 kts. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...JDS MARINE...Rothstein