743
FXUS63 KEAX 231744
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers expected to stick around today east of
  I-35

- Cooler temperatures expected this week

- Rain chances increase for the second half of this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An ongoing line of showers has developed on the remnants of a
surface cold front that has dipped into southern MO. As a result,
expect low temperatures to be a little cooler than they have been
(in the 50s). Moist mid-level SW flow will continue to override the
surface front in southern Missouri, allowing showers to continue up
into portions of central and northern Missouri. Expect mainly light
and scattered showers east of I-35.

A shortwave trough moving through the area combined with the influx
of moisture in the mid to upper levels, seen on current satellite
imagery, will set the stage for increased cloud coverage through the
day for most of the CWA. This, combined with the effects of the
recent cold front, will result in cooler high temperatures today
with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. An occasional scattered shower
is possible through the day mainly for the eastern portions of our
CWA.

Tomorrow, another mid-level trough dips southeast from the Dakotas
and moves through the area resulting in another cloudy day with the
potential for some light showers across the area through the
afternoon. High temperatures may be a few degrees warmer as the cold
air advection weakens with winds shifting to the west. High
temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s across
the region.

For the second half of the week, ridging builds into the area from
the west clearing out some of the moisture giving us a short break
from the rainy conditions. By Thursday, a tropical system approaches
from the Gulf through the GA/AL border. This will bring another
influx of moisture that will result in an increase in cloud coverage
and additional rounds of scattered showers across the CWA through
the weekend. The tropical system is anticipated to linger for a few
days before being pushed off to the northeast by another trough by
the start of next week. Expect temperatures to stay close to
seasonal averages with cloud coverage helping to decrease volatility.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

MVFR ceilings continue for another couple of hours, then should
gradually improve to VFR through the evening. Most of the
heavier rain shower activity is southeast of the area, but
drizzle or a light shower could pop up through the middle of the
afternoon, but not expecting anything to drop below MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull