968
FXUS63 KEAX 270518
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms return late
  tomorrow night into Friday morning, with locally moderate to
  heavy rainfall possible.

- Strong to severe storms and locally moderate to heavy
  rainfall possible again Friday evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The current synoptic weather pattern is defined by a large mid
level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest and associated
ridging across the Rockies and portions of the High Plains with
troughing over much of the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, our region
is situation between these features, with north northwesterly
flow aloft. At the surface, the cold front that was the trigger
for widespread convection earlier this morning is slowly sinking
southward toward the Arkansas Ozarks, with surface high
pressure building in behind it. The end result is cooler
temperatures today, with 2 PM temperatures in the lower to mid
80s, as well as a northerly breeze. Lingering cumulus should
dissipate/move off to the southeast by later this afternoon,
with a pleasant evening and overnight period in store.

Mid level flow becomes more zonal by tomorrow as the western
ridge flattens out thanks to an approaching trough moving into
the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. High temperatures
should be similar to those of today, albeit perhaps a degree or
so cooler, with some mid to high level clouds overspreading the
region from the west in the afternoon hours. By tomorrow night,
troughing will move into the Northern High Plains with a
surface low developing near the Black Hills. Meanwhile, a subtle
secondary surface low should develop over western Kansas with a
few embedded perturbations translating within the zonal westerly
flow across Kansas into western Missouri. CAMs suggest that this
should generate a complex of showers and thunderstorms over
Kansas, moving eastward across our region late tomorrow night
into Friday morning. While SPC brings a marginal risk into far
eastern KS and western MO, severe risk appears to be pretty low.
However, locally moderate rainfall may be possible, especially
over northern MO. With heavy rain earlier this morning,
additional moderate to heavy rain could cause some flooding
concerns.

By Friday afternoon/evening, the trough should move eastward
into the Upper Midwest with a cold front approaching the region
from the northwest. Strong southerly low level flow should yield
good moisture return, with dewpoints progged to be in the lower
70s by Friday afternoon. With ML CAPE values on the order of
3000 J/kg and up to 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, strong to
severe storms will be possible Friday evening into early
Saturday morning. Locally moderate rainfall will once again be
possible.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday, temperatures look to rebound
on Monday with temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indices
above 100 degrees forecast by Tuesday afternoon. While
widespread heavy rainfall does not seem likely, Monday and
Tuesday will feature chances for some isolated showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
and variable winds this morning will increase and become more
southeast through midday. Late in the period, widely scattered
showers may begin to traverse the terminals, with better overall
precipitation chances beyond the current period. Will handle
with VCSH mention for now around 28/03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Multiple points along the MO River are in minor to moderate
flood stage. These elevated stages are expected to last through
mid to late next week depending on future rainfall totals around
the region. Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view the latest forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly affected
by updated information and additional rainfall around the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Kurtz
HYDROLOGY...Pesel