229
FXUS63 KEAX 150746
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-end chances (15-25%) for showers and a few thunderstorms
  today, mainly east of Highway 65.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.

- Slight chances for precipitation return Wednesday and
  Thursday, mainly across far eastern Kansas and western
  Missouri before widespread precipitation chances build in by
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

This morning, very little has changed with respect to the overall
pattern from yesterday. A Rex block continues to exist over the
eastern CONUS with a elongated upper level low stretching from the
southeastern CONUS back into the local area. This afternoon a 700mb
vort max will will move into the area. A weakly sheared but
moderately unstable environment of 1500-2000J/kg of MUCAPE may be
enough to allow a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect
areas east of Highway 65. As such have maintained slight chance (15%-
25%) PoPs for those areas. Otherwise, above normal temperatures will
again be expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight into
Monday the Rex-block over the eastern CONUS breaks down and we
transition to a Omega blocking pattern with a upper low over the
Tennessee River Valley and another upper low over the western
Rockies and ridging over the central CONUS. Surface high pressure
should help keeping conditions dry on Monday with highs in the mid
80s. Tuesday, the upper level ridge over the region will continue to
amplify providing height rises aiding in temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 80s.

By Wednesday, a piece of energy ejecting out from the western low
will shift northeast into the northern High Plains. This will force
a cold front into central Plains. Showers will approach the area
however it is questionable whether they will be able to cut into the
ridge over place and bring precipitation. The model blend this run
has produced PoPs of 15%-30% for Wednesday into early Thursday. This
is lower than previous runs and it continues to look questionable if
the western CWA receives precipitation through Midweek. Highs
Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to upper 80s with highs rising into
the mid 80s to near 90 Thursday.

On Friday, the upper level low that was over the western Rockies
will have moved to the eastern Rockies forcing a stronger cold front
towards the area. This looks to bring our next real chance for
precipitation to the area Friday through Sunday. Organized severe
weather would not be expected as the upper level trough is expected
to be a positively tilted wave however, there may be enough
instability in place for thunderstorms. Highs Friday will be in the
mid 80s to near 90 before cooling into the upper 70s to mid 80s with
storms possible on Saturday. Sunday, behind the front, temperatures
will be closer to normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conds are expected thru this TAF cycle as just few-sct high
clouds are fcst thru the pd. the only exception will be for STJ
which may experience lgt fog btn 11Z-14Z reducing vis to 4-5SM.
Winds will be out of the ESE btn 3-7kts thru 15Z when winds will
veer to the SE and increase to around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73