Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
574 FXUS65 KFGZ 241143 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 443 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over eastern Arizona towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure continues to wobble around the southwest, and with moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms remain. 00Z HREF guidance shows the greatest instability this afternoon along and south of the Mogollon Rim, where around 500-1000 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE are forecast. Thus, more scattered coverage of storms is expected over these areas with only isolated coverage expected elsewhere. Flash flooding looks to be the primary threat with any storms, as precipitable water values remain around 0.80- 1.40 inches and storm motions of around 5-10 kts. A few stronger storms over the higher terrain may be possible, but the threat for any severe weather is limited. Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through much of the week, as the monsoonal high remains in place in the southwest. Flash flooding will continue to be a threat each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Moisture begins to wain as a a weak trough sweeps to the north of Arizona. Drier conditions look to ensue for Friday and into much of the weekend. However, the return of dry conditions looks to be short-lived, with moisture slowly creeping back northward. Thus, chances for isolated showers and storms likely return by the end of the weekend for eastern Arizona. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period, excluding brief periods this afternoon and evening where TS and SHRA will result in reduced visibilities and lowered ceilings. Gusty, erratic winds are expected near thunderstorms. Outside of storms, winds will be generally SW 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/12Z through Thursday 27/12Z...Daily afternoon/evening TS and SHRA chances will persist, resulting in brief, sporadic chances for sub VFR conditions. W-SW winds during the day will persist, outside of thunderstorm outflows. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again expected today and Tuesday. Afternoon winds will likely become influenced by outflows. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Generally light SW winds during the day, min RHs ranging between 25-45%, and good overnight recoveries. Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon storm chances persist, but coverage becomes more isolated and confined to the higher terrain by Friday. West to southwest winds each day outside of storms at 5-10 mph, increasing Thursday and Friday to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-35 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff