284
FXUS65 KFGZ 110926
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
226 AM MST Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next
week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated activity through
Sunday, primarily over the eastern portions of Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will remain centered just off the
southern California coast into next week. The position of the high
will place Arizona under a dry west to northwest flow. The result
will be generally hot temperatures through the period with only
limited moisture sneaking across northern Arizona. The best
chances for any decent precipitation or thunderstorms will be far
eastern Arizona.

For today...Hot, dry and breezy. Look for elevated fire danger
under such hot and breezy conditions. Take extra precaution with
any outdoor activities that could produce sparks or flames. An
Extreme Heat Warning will continue for the lower elevations of the
Grand Canyon.

From Saturday into Wednesday...High pressure will remain in place
with hot and mainly dry conditions continuing. Winds weaken some
but still be a bit gusty in the afternoons from the west to
northwest at 10 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph. The mainly dry air
mass will persist. Nocturnal low-level flow will usher in limited
moisture from over the Gulf of California only to be overtaken by
the deep and dry flow from the west during the day. For much of
the area this will amount to increasing coverage of cloud buildups
over the higher terrain but with the chances for showers and
thunderstorms remaining quite low. The main area where a bit
deeper moisture could sneak in and better chances for
precipitation/storms will be the far eastern Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains

From Thursday onward...Models show the high center gradually
shifting eastward. If so, this would open the door to ample
monsoon moisture that lies to the south of Arizona. We`ll see, the
models have a notoriously difficult time forecasting features
past about five days this time of year. Fingers crossed.


&&

.AVIATION...Friday 11/06Z through Saturday 12/06Z...VFR expected.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line after 18Z. Light and
variable winds, becoming SW-W 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts after
16Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/06Z through Monday 14/06Z...VFR expected.
ISO/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line on Saturday and
Sunday. W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts each day with light
and variable winds during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Hot and mostly dry. Localized
critical fire weather today in the Little Colorado River Valley,
with afternoon winds from the west at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35
mph. Otherwise, afternoon winds generally 10-15 mph gusting 20-25
mph. Minimum RH of 5-10% is forecast north of the Mogollon Rim, 10-
20% south of the Rim each day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are forecast along the higher terrain south and east of Flagstaff on
Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot temperatures with increasing moisture
and thunderstorm chances. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be over the higher terrain along and south of the
I-40 corridor. Minimum RH values will be between 10-20% each day
with winds out of the west at 5-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can
be expected near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff