Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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447 FXUS65 KFGZ 251720 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1020 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity will slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A large-scale outflow moved across the state and into Nevada overnight, ensuring another moist day. 12Z KFGZ sounding is the most unstable and moist so far, there is very little to suppress convection and we expect an early start. This deep/unstable profile has a touch more shear when compared to yesterday and the threat for severe (hail) should not be overlooked. However, the primary threat is still heavy rain and slow-moving storms, that may lead to Flash Flooding. Adding a wrinkle to an otherwise standard, diurnally forced convective forecast, is a well-defined MCV over the I-10 between Phoenix and Tucson. This feature is progged to move into Yavapai County this evening, potentially prolonging convection later into the night. These features don`t always pan out, especially if moving into a worked-over airmass, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit. From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we have seen for the last week. No major updates planned this morning, perhaps we will tweak the 15Z-18Z PoPs a bit to reflect an earlier start, but that`s about it. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 25/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/18Z through Friday 28/18Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z Wednesday and Thursday, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will still produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm activity primarily along and east of the I-17 corridor Thursday, shifting even farther east by Friday. Light winds becoming SW10-20g25kts during the daylight hours for Thursday/Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. Winds will mainly be driven by outflows. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent, with good overnight recoveries. Thursday through Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms again Thursday, but the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim northeast and eastward. After Thursday, most of the central and western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff