271
FXUS65 KFGZ 280035
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
535 PM MST Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and storms will continue, mostly along and
north of the Mogollon Rim today. Activity decreases for Friday
and Saturday with only isolated storms possible. Moisture and
thunderstorms chances increase again from Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another active day of convection in underway across
northern Arizona this afternoon. Ample amounts of moisture in
place are combining with the passage of a weak disturbance and
enhanced wind shear to generate scattered to numerous showers and
storms, mainly focused along and north of the Mogollon Rim and
Coconino Plateau. The best wind shear available to help with storm
organization and longevity is located across the far north along
the Utah border, thus this will be the most likely are for severe
storms. Greater storm motions today of generally 15-20 mph will
limit the flash flood threat somewhat, but storms that train over
the same areas may still cause flooding. Most of the CAMs show
support for convection to continue across the northeast through
the evening hours before coming to an end.

The trough moving through the northern Rockies today will usher in
some drier air for the next couple of days, but the drying trend
looks less pronounced. Precipitable water values don`t drop quite
as low as seen previously. This means we will still see some
isolated afternoon thunderstorms, perhaps as west as Flagstaff.
Less available moisture will result in more of a gusty wind threat
and much less of a flash flood threat.

By Saturday, high pressure will again build back into the region
and start the pull of moisture northward. The best chances for
showers and storms will be over the White Mountains. Southerly
flow is forecast to increase and draw moisture northward Sunday
through next week leading to increasing precipitation chances
during this period. The question of how long the moisture will
last is questionable at best right now. Extended range models show
support for a strong high circulation to build over the west
coast, which often results in a drier northerly flow for Arizona.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/00Z through Saturday 29/00Z...Isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA north and east of a KFLG-KGCN line through 03Z.
SHRA may linger near Chinle/Window Rock (KRQE) through 09Z. TSRA/SHRA
possible east of a KPGA-KINW-KJTC line from 19Z Friday-00Z
Saturday. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds to 40
kts possible in and around TS. SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to
20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/00Z through Monday 01/00Z...TSRA/SHRA
possible east of a KPGA-KINW-KJTC line from 00-03Z Saturday.
Another round of TSRA/SHRA possible in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC on
Saturday. Moisture surges back north and west on Sunday for
widespread SHRA/TSRA. Winds SW 10-15 kts on Friday, subsiding to
5-10 kts on Saturday and 10-20 kts on Sunday. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Scattered showers and
storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, with
heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds possible in the stronger
storms. Expect a drying trend Friday and Saturday with a few
isolated storms possible. Warm temperatures with breezy southwest
winds 10-20 mph each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin
to increase from Sunday into next week. Warm temperatures with
southwest winds 10-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff