448
FXUS64 KFWD 141704
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Despite a weak mid level ridge in place across the Southern
Plains, a few isolated thunderstorms have developed generally
along an axis of higher theta-e across our northeast counties. A
plume of modest instability has developed across the region as
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s and lower 70s
beneath steepening mid level lapse rates. While forcing for ascent
will remain weak through the day, we can`t rule out a few more
isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon mainly east of I-35.
Gusty winds and lightning would be the main threat with any storms
this afternoon.

Tonight should generally be quiet with any lingering activity
coming to an end after sunset. It`ll be a more humid night with
lows in the low to mid 70s. On Sunday, the mid level ridging will
be replaced by stronger northwest flow aloft while the remnants of
a tropical system in the East Pacific overspread north Central
Mexico. The combination of increasing deep layer moisture and weak
ascent from the aforementioned upper features should support at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the
region. This appears most likely across our Central TX counties
where broad low level convergence sets up thanks to east-northeast
winds against more southerly flow across South Texas. We`ll keep
PoPs at 20-30% on Sunday afternoon/evening. Any activity ongoing
during the afternoon should diminish after dark with lows again in
the lower 70s areawide.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/
/Sunday and Beyond/

Remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana will phase with a weak shortwave
trough exiting the Desert Southwest over the state of Texas late
Saturday into early Sunday. This synoptic pattern will continue to
stream upper-level moisture over the region and help support
isolated to scattered showers and storms Sunday morning into
Sunday night across portions of the region. Isolated showers may
be ongoing in the vicinity of the Red River Sunday morning on the
nose of a strong theta-e ridge. Better chances (20-30%) for
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as strong daytime
heating leads to 1250-1750 J/kg MLCAPE near a weak frontal zone
laid out generally from Eastland/Stephens County toward the Brazos
Valley. Widespread severe weather is not expected due to weak
wind shear. However, an environment marked by mid- to upper-90s
temps over mid-60s dewpoints with more than sufficient instability
could support a couple strong, pulse-type thunderstorms capable
of producing gusty downburst winds.

Rain chances across our southwestern half will diminish by late
Sunday evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Mid- to upper-
level ridging will then become anchored over North and Central
Texas through much of the work week, keeping dry and abnormally
hot conditions in place. Expect afternoon highs in the low to
mid-90s and overnight lows in the upper-60s to mid-70s through the
work week.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance are showing signs of a
stronger storm system entering the Plains next weekend potentially
bringing rain chances and cooler temperatures to the region.
However, with this potential system still remaining 6-8 days out,
confidence is currently low in this particular scenario
(something to watch for!)

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR should prevail through the period with a prevailing easterly
flow, although some variability from southeast to east-northeast
may occur through Sunday. A few scattered showers/storms currently
ongoing to the northeast of the D10 airspace will spread south
over the next few hours. This activity should remain east of the
major airports, but we`ll continue to monitor this low potential.
Otherwise, a steady stream of high clouds will continue across
North and Central TX.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  74  92  72  92 /   5  10   5   0   0
Waco                98  73  97  71  95 /   0   5  20  10   0
Paris               89  67  88  67  88 /  10   5   5   0   5
Denton              96  70  92  68  92 /   5  10   5   0   0
McKinney            94  70  92  68  92 /  20  10   5   0   0
Dallas              97  73  94  71  94 /   5   5   5   0   0
Terrell             94  70  91  68  91 /  20  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           98  73  94  70  94 /  10  10  10   5   0
Temple              98  73  98  70  97 /   0   5  30  20   0
Mineral Wells       97  71  95  69  95 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$