914
FXUS64 KFWD 251844
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/

There is a chance for isolated instances of severe weather late
this afternoon and evening across North Texas. Hot and humid
weather is also expected this weekend across the region.


Heat...
Our attention has largely been on the severe weather, but a much
more widespread impact the next few days will be the heat. We have
issued a Heat Advisory for parts of Eastern Central Texas for this
afternoon. We will collaborate with neighboring offices and assess
new data over the next few hours to decide if we will extend the
advisory through tomorrow or Monday afternoon. As a reminder, our
Heat Advisory criteria is a heat index value >= 105 F (or ambient
temperature >= 103 F) for two consecutive days. Most locations
will hit this value either today or tomorrow, and most outside of
the advisory will not hit it both days.

Today`s main concern will be heat index values between 103-109
for most of the area. It will be hot, humid, and mostly sunny for
a good part of the afternoon. A dryline will move into our area
tomorrow, resulting in temperatures soaring into the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees for most locations along and west of I-35. Areas
east of the dryline will contend with another day of 105+ degree
heat index values. If you plan to spend extended periods of time
outdoors this weekend, please remember to have a plan to beat the
heat: Drink plenty of water, limit time spent outdoors in direct
sunlight, wear light- colored and breathable clothing, and be able
to recognize the symptoms of heat illness.


Severe Weather...
Yesterday`s remnant boundaries are in the process of washing out
as a low pressure center deepens to our northwest. A vigorous
shortwave trough will eject out of the Rockies this afternoon,
helping strengthen pressure falls and provide a source of large
scale ascent later today. A dryline is becoming better defined
well to our west (currently west of Childress and near Big Spring)
that will advance east this afternoon.

We`re still not 100% sure exactly where or when the first storms
of the day will take place as the CAM guidance has had modest to
poor run-to-run consistency regarding this aspect. Mesoanalysis
satellite data has already started to indicate a few modest
updraft towers going up within a shallow cumulus field between
Sterling City and Spur...or about 50 miles ahead of the dryline.
If these updrafts are able to mature into mature thunderstorms,
they would approach our forecast area between ~5-6PM this
afternoon. There is a 30% chance of this occurring. We are not
expecting any thunderstorms in our area earlier than 5PM due to a
very strong cap residing over our forecast area. Surface heating
alone should not be sufficient to break the cap without the help
of forced ascent by either the dryline or the supercell itself.

We are mainly concerned about *isolated* supercells developing
along the dryline late this afternoon to our northwest. CI is most
likely to take place where a moisture/theta-e ridge extends into
the dryline west of Wichita Falls/Abilene. Storms will develop in
a highly buoyant and well-sheared atmosphere, more than capable
of supporting supercells. Both left and right splitting storms
will also be likely this afternoon and evening. As is usually the
case...right moving supercells will have a higher potential of
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, while left
moving supercells will primarily have a large hail threat.

As the storms move off the boundary this evening, the storms
should remain isolated as they continue east into our forecast
area after about 7PM. The nocturnal low-level jet will strengthen
and provide sufficient inflow to maintain the storm`s intensity
several hours after sunset (particularly any right-moving storms).
Most CAM guidance only has 1 or 2 storms moving across North Texas
this evening, so while the coverage of severe weather will be
low...any storm that lives into the evening should pack a punch.
The storms should gradually weaken as they ingest more CIN
overnight, this is particularly true for areas along and east of
I-35. While an isolated storm can`t be ruled out after midnight,
most storms will end before this time.

Tomorrow morning will start precip-free, but there is a 10% chance
of isolated storms developing along a dryline over east/northeast
Texas late in the day. Near parallel flow to the boundary will
limit moisture convergence, and therefore the convective
potential. However, similar to today...any storm that develops
should be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 214 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/
/Monday and Beyond/

Much of the region will remain rain-free through the early
portions of next week as dry, subsident air remains positioned
over North and Central Texas behind a passing mid-level shortwave.
A weak cold front will sink south of the Red River by Sunday
evening bringing east-northeasterly winds to much of North Texas
through Monday. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid-90s
south of I-20 on Monday with highs in the upper 80s along the Red
River north of that frontal boundary. Rain chances could return as
early as Monday evening across portions of eastern North and
Central Texas on the nose of strengthening 925-850mb warm-air
advection. Additional daily chances for rain will return by the
middle of next week as a dryline sharpens over West Texas and a
series of disturbances round about the northern periphery of a
building mid-/upper ridge over Mexico. Although it is a bit early
to discuss severe weather impacts for the middle of next week,
repeated rounds of thunderstorms could increase the potential for
flash flooding concerns, especially over the areas that received
the bulk of the rainfall this past week. Otherwise, expect
afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s and warm, humid overnight
lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s all of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus over North Texas will gradually lift/scatter over the
next 1-2 hours. Similar to yesterday, the skies will be hazy all
day with 6-9 SM visibility expected through the afternoon. We have
omitted this detail from the TAF due to its low operational impact.

Our main concern will be another round of thunderstorms moving
toward the area late in the day. A few storms are starting to go
up well to the west of D10 at this time. These storms will move
east, with only a 10% chance they live long enough to move into
D10 or ACT airspace around/after 00Z. Additional storms should
develop near the Bowie feeder routes between 21-23Z that will move
east/southeast late in the day/*this evening. These should encroach
on the D10 terminals after 00-01Z and move east after a couple
hours. The storms will be isolated, so there is only a 30% chance
of storms directly impacting the terminals at this time.

After the storms move east, VFR and south flow should prevail
before another round of MVFR stratus moves in early Sunday
morning. The stratus should clear by mid-late morning with breezy
south-southwest flow expected tomorrow afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  74  97  73  93 /   5  30   5   0   5
Waco                92  74  95  73  93 /   0   5   5   0   5
Paris               87  72  91  69  89 /   5  30  10  10   5
Denton              92  73  96  69  91 /  10  40   5   0   0
McKinney            90  74  94  71  90 /   5  30  10   5   5
Dallas              92  74  97  74  94 /   5  20   5   0   5
Terrell             90  73  91  72  90 /   5  20  10   5   5
Corsicana           92  75  93  75  93 /   0  10   5   0   5
Temple              93  74  95  73  94 /   0   5   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  72 100  68  93 /  20  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ147-148-158>162-
174-175.

&&

$$