Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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821
FXUS64 KFWD 261109
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

North and Central Texas currently sits beneath a dominant upper
level ridge, which will provide quiet aviation weather through
Wednesday. The primary issue is the northerly wind component,
which should remain strong enough to warrant north flow ops in
the Metroplex through at least midday. Winds will veer to a more
easterly direction mid to late afternoon as the post-frontal
surface ridge shifts into the Mississippi Valley. Winds will
continue to veer overnight tonight, becoming southeasterly at 5
to 10 kt by this time tomorrow morning.


30

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

The shortwave disturbance showing up on satellite this morning
will drop harmlessly across Missouri and into the Mississippi
Valley, having too little moisture for any convective development.
The primary feature of note is the large-scale ridge building
over the Plains, which will bring pleasant weather to the region
for the next 24 hours. Cold air advection behind the Sunday
night/Monday cold front has brought a chilly start to today, but
plentiful sun will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s
and lower 70s this afternoon. Winds will veer to the east late
this afternoon, then to the southeast tonight as the post-frontal
surface ridge shifts east of the region. Clear skies and light
southeast winds will allow temperatures to fall into the mid and
upper 40s tonight.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/
/Wednesday through Monday/

Wednesday and Thursday will remain quiet on the sensible weather
front, with warm and breezy conditions as we await our next
system and cold front just in time for this coming weekend. Low
level warm advection should start in earnest for the the latter
half of the week and with plentiful sunshine Wednesday, I leaned
toward warmer guidance versus the blends on high temperatures.
Even with increasing mid-high clouds Thursday and the expected
breezy south winds, temperatures should warm into the 70s each
day. A surge of stratus should arrive Thursday night, as our next
system approaches from the west and a low level jet of 30-40 knots
being induced by a lead shortwave moving across the region helps
surge Gulf moisture northward. Lows that were in the upper 40s to
mid 50s will only will be hard-pressed to fall below 60 degrees
Friday morning with expected morning clouds and gusty south winds
continuing. The nose of the strongest low level warm advection
should remain focused just to our north and northeast toward late
Thursday through Friday morning and toward the Ozarks. Combined
with a decent elevated mixed layer(EML)/cap between 700mb-800mb,
only concern would be a some sprinkles or possible a stray shower
or two underneath the slow-lifting EML.

The axis of deeper moisture should continue to shift to along and
east of I-35 by Friday afternoon, as low level flow veers and
dries out the lower levels with the assist from a surface dryline
surging east through the western CWA. The dryline is one feature where
medium range guidance such as the European and GFS can struggle
on. As height falls occur in advance of a cold front crashing
south through the plains, the eastward progression of the dryline
will be dependent on latitude and track of a weak surface low
track just in advance of a the front.

For now, I will keep a mention of slight chance-low chance PoP
east of a Gainesville-DFW-Hearne line where better moisture in the
850-700mb layer will orient for the sustenance of updrafts for
convection. Though isolated coverage of a strong to severe storm
is possible, especially north of I-20 and east of I-35 across our
northeast counties, it does appear the main mid level shortwave
track is now being progged further north from Oklahoma/Kansas
border -- east toward the Ozarks. As such, fully agree with SPC
designating the 15% severe risk northeast of our counties across
eastern Oklahoma and possibly into the western Ozarks for the Day
4 period. The west-southwest flow aloft should maintain some
order of warmer mid level dry air as noted beforehand through
midnight Saturday.

We`ll continue to fine-tune the forecast for Friday/Friday night
in future forecasts, just in case models do a U-turn and start
pulling down the better upper jet max and shortwave forcing back
southward. As for high temperatures Friday, I once again elected
toward warmer side of guidance, especially the central and western
counties where strong insolation should help highs climb well
into the 80s.

As the aformentioned shortwave moves quickly east into the Mid
Mississippi Valley late Friday night and Saturday, a very strong
cold front will be fully supported southward into North and
Central Texas from the pre-dawn hours through midday Saturday. In
my humble opinion, this may be our best window for a strong or
severe storm or two across our far eastern counties with 50 knots
of WSW deep layer shear, effective bulk wind difference(EBWD), and
steep mid-level lapse rates 7-8 deg C/km which could lead to at
least a hail threat. If surface dew point temperatures end up
being higher than currently advertised in these models, then some
SBCAPE may be available for a localized damaging wind threat with
any convective line segments across East Texas. For now, we`ll
remain conservative until we can get better agreement from the the
GFS/European models and when our local CAMs can start to sample
this system.

Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy, brisk, and colder conditions
Saturday afternoon and continuing through the remainder of the
weekend, as evidenced by a surface high on the order of 1035mb
dropping southward through the Plains and toward the Gulf
Coast. Low level cold advection will be impressive and surface
pressures that high are a sign of the cold and dense nature of the
this airmass which is originating from the Northwest Territory and
Eastern Alaska. It certainly won`t feel like we`re entering early
April, even into Monday as highs will be hard-pressed to warm past
the mid 50s to mid 60s. The northerly winds will also bring a bite
to the air that Old Man Winter isn`t quite done yet. Lastly, mid
level disturbances ejecting across particularly our Central Texas
counties within the southern branch of a split-flow regime across
the Central CONUS may lend to low chances for showers and even an
elevated rumble of thunder on Sunday into Monday.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  50  74  54  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  48  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  45  71  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              69  47  73  54  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  45  71  53  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              70  51  75  55  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  45  72  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  47  72  51  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  48  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  46  76  55  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/05



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