Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 131026
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
526 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An MCS over eastern Oklahoma should remain mostly to the northeast
of the region as it propagates southeast. However, since there is
at least a low-end probability that it will clip a couple of our
counties this morning, slight chance POPs have been added to the
northeast zones. Patchy fog has also developed across the
northeast where recent rains have fallen, but should burn off
quickly an hour or 2 after sunrise. The only other change was to
add Eastland County to the Excessive Heat Warning where 105+ high
temperatures are looking more likely the next few afternoons.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

A strong mid level ridge will remain centered over the southern
Rockies with its eastern extent affecting all of North and Central
Texas. Temperatures have been on the increase over the past few
days as a result, and this trend is likely to continue through
Friday. The Heat Advisory will remain in place through the end
of the period, along with the Excessive Heat Warning across the
western-most zones where actual air temperatures in excess of 105
degrees are expected each afternoon. Another factor enhancing
surface temperatures will be a weak front, which will be forced
southward into Oklahoma by the persistent north flow aloft.
It is possible that veering winds and compressional warming south
of the front may cause the 105+ temperatures to occur farther
east. Will need to keep open the possibility of expanding the
Excessive Heat Warning in later shifts if additional upward
adjustments in Friday max temps become necessary.

The only possible relief will be slight chances for thunderstorms
across the northeast zones once again, as weak disturbances pass
through the Arklatex region in the north flow aloft. The most
likely occurrence would be Friday, and slight chance POPs have
been added to areas northeast of the Metroplex for the Friday
period. Otherwise, hot conditions with southerly winds of 10-15
MPH will keep the elevated fire danger going west of I-35 each
afternoon.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

Strong upper ridging will remain in place on Friday but will begin
a westward shift by Friday night through the weekend. This will
allow northerly flow aloft to become established across the
Southern Plains and will open the door for a weak front to slide
southward over the weekend. It`ll continue to be hot both Saturday
and Sunday with highs above 100 degrees in most locations. The
aforementioned weak front will slide south toward the Red River on
Saturday and may actually be accompanied by a period of
compressional warming ahead of its arrival. This could send temp
upward from the current forecast of 102-104 degrees.

A mid level disturbance will move through the Southern Plains on
Sunday and will give the front an additional southward push. Right
now it looks like Sunday will be mostly dry, although an isolated
storm isn`t completely out of the question. If any storms do
develop on Sunday, they would most certainly be accompanied by a
wind threat. Rain chances will creep upward on Sunday night into
Monday as the ridge continues its westward retreat. Moisture
should be sufficient for at least widely scattered showers/storms,
but we won`t go any higher than 20-30% on PoPs at this time.
Northerly flow should remain in place for much of next week which
will keep temperatures back down closer to seasonal norms or a few
degrees below.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
12Z TAFs

The thunderstorm complex over OK may cause some deviations into
northeast gates of DFW TRACON this morning, but should remain
well east of Metroplex terminals. VFR and south winds are
expected at all TAF sites through Friday.

30

Previous Discussion:
/06Z TAFs/

VFR expected area-wide with southerly winds mainly in the 8-12 kt
range. Isolated convection Thursday afternoon should remain just
northeast of DFW TRACON.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   103  83 104  82 104 /   5   5   5   0   5
Waco               104  79 104  80 105 /   0   5   0   0   5
Paris               98  77  98  76  98 /  20  10  20   5   5
Denton             104  81 104  81 103 /   5   5   5   0   5
McKinney           103  81 103  80 103 /   5   5  10   0   5
Dallas             104  83 104  82 104 /   5   5   5   0   5
Terrell            103  79 103  79 102 /   5  10  10   0   5
Corsicana          103  79 102  80 102 /   5   5   0   0   5
Temple             104  77 104  78 104 /   0   5   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      105  78 106  79 104 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-130>135-141-143>148-157>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ100-101-115-
116-129.

&&

$$

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