Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180515
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1115 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018


.AVIATION...
A strong cold front was moving across FTW and AFW as of 05Z. This
front will be through all Metroplex terminals by 06Z and Waco
around 07Z (which is a bit faster than previously thought).
Thus far, the front has come through dry, however, a few showers
should develop as the front encounters a bit better low level
moisture generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. Any
showers that do develop should be brief and have little impact to
air operations.

The wind will turn to the northwest with the passage of the cold
front at speeds between 12 and 16 knots along with some higher
gusts. These winds will continue through Sunday morning, but
slowly decrease in the afternoon/evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes.

Some MVFR ceilings will move in behind the cold front and remain
in place through about midday Sunday before lifting above 4000 ft.
VFR conditions are expected Sunday afternoon and evening with
broken to overcast mid and upper level clouds.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 315 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018/
/Tonight/

A cold front continues to make slow and steady progress southward
through Northwest Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon. Conditions
across North and Central Texas have been pleasant ahead of the
front with southerly winds and temperatures in the 60s and 70s,
but much cooler air will be on the doorstep by sunset. Subtle
pressure rises behind the surface boundary indicate that the front
isn`t getting too much of a push for the time being, but it is
expected to pick up steam during the evening hours as daytime
mixing ahead of the boundary wanes. Will continue to lean toward
the faster side of guidance with regard to timing, which would
bring the boundary near a Bowie-Cisco line 8 to 9 PM, then
through the Metroplex midnight to 2 AM, then through the
southeastern counties 6 to 8 AM Sunday. Scattered showers will
accompany the front with the highest rain chances occurring across
the northeastern counties where slightly better lift will take
place, but overall weak forcing and little to no instability will
preclude the threat of thunderstorms. Otherwise, tonight`s lows
will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to the low 50s in
the southeast.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018/
/Sunday through Friday/

Periodic chances for rain are forecast on Sunday and again during
the mid-week time frame. Rain amounts look light at this time.
Temperatures in general will be below normal to start the long
term forecast period with some slight warming.

A sharp cold front continues to knife through South Plains this
afternoon and will signal the end of the nice weather across North
and Central Texas. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a decent
chance for precipitation, mainly across East and Central Texas.
This seems plausible given that low level moisture---manifest in
the current CU field across these areas this afternoon---will be
sufficient. I`ve nudged PoPs upward into the likely category for
parts of Central Texas where surface dewpoints will continue to
increase ahead of the boundary. Despite the added low level
moisture, forecast instability still looks quite low, so I`ll
abstain from the mention of any thunder at this time. The big
story on Sunday will be the much cooler conditions with most areas
seeing highs in the 40s to near 50. Blustery north winds will make
it feel a tad cooler with apparent T`s in the 30s to mid 40s.

Continued isentropic upglide is anticipated across Central Texas
on Monday. I`ll linger PoPs here as a result, with the highest
rain chances during the morning and early afternoon hours. It`ll
remain cool for most locations on Monday, though temperatures may
be several degrees higher compared to Sunday as the CAA machine
shuts down. The exception to this may be across Central Texas
where denser cloud cover may persist resulting in highs in the low
50s. Tuesday looks dry as shortwave ridging moves overhead and
gives the area a respite from the precipitation. Temperatures
should climb to just below climatological values and I`ve kept
highs closer to MOS values given the plentiful sunshine.

The next shot of rain arrives on Wednesday as a compact upper
level wave translates eastward through the Pacific southwest.
There remains some question about the degree of low level
moisture, but overall the model consensus is that enough should
return northward to warrant a decent chance for rain. The best
rain chances will be across Central Texas and the Big Country
where ascent and low level moisture will be collocated. The axis
of best rain chances will shift eastward quickly through the rest
of the day on Wednesday. Instability progs are a little better
across Central Texas and the Big Country, so I`ll continue the
mention of isolated storms within the broader rain shield. With
the rain, high temperatures will likely remain in the 50s and
60s...with the coolest conditions southwest of a Cisco to Waco to
Hearne line.

Thursday should be another dry day with temperatures moderating,
but remaining below normal values. Our attention will then turn
westward where model guidance has come into slightly better
agreement regarding the approach of the next upper trough. This
feature looks to be quite strong with 90 to 100 meter 12 hour
500mb height falls overspreading the Southern Plains. With limited
moisture and a bulk of the moisture expected to be of poor
quality (shallow in depth and generally not very rich), I`ll keep
most areas rain-free on Friday. The exception will be across the
eastern Red River Valley where enough mid/upper level forcing may
slide in across this area to support a few showers. Otherwise,
what should be a Pacific front will induce downslope flow across
much of the area...resulting in warm (highs in the upper 60s and
70s) and pleasant conditions. Another front may plow through the
area in the extended reaches of the forecast, but at this time,
uncertainty in timing and available moisture for precip is low.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  46  38  57  40 /  40  20   5   5   0
Waco                48  49  41  57  39 /  40  50  20  20   5
Paris               49  49  36  55  38 /  50  30   5   5   0
Denton              42  46  35  58  35 /  40  20   0   0   0
McKinney            45  46  36  55  37 /  50  20   5   5   0
Dallas              47  47  38  57  42 /  40  30   5   5   0
Terrell             49  50  38  57  40 /  50  40  10  10   0
Corsicana           50  50  40  54  43 /  50  50  20  20   5
Temple              48  48  42  55  39 /  40  50  40  30  10
Mineral Wells       40  46  34  58  35 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25


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