074
FXUS64 KFWD 152045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 151 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024/
/Through Thursday afternoon/

Another warm afternoon is taking shape across the region with
afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s area wide.
Breezy southerly winds are also expected given the tight pressure
gradient between a surface high to our east and a low pressure
over the TX/OK Panhandle. Other than the high level clouds moving
from the west, the rest of the day will remain fairly quiet. Any
convection that develops this afternoon through early evening
will stay far to our west.

Rain and storm chances will increase overnight into Thursday
morning as the surface low/cold front moves closer to us and the
energy from an upper shortwave trough spreads across the region.
As advertised over the last several days, showers and storms will
increase in coverage and intensity during the day, but especially
in the afternoon and evening. This will be a very messy setup
given the potential for a few MCS and/or outflows interacting
with the cold front. The threat for a few strong to severe storms
still exist for much of the region, but especially along and
south of I-20 into Central Texas. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main concerns, but we can`t rule out a tornado or two.
In addition to the severe weather, the threat for flooding will
increase as rounds of heavy rain and/or slow moving/training
storms are also expected. Areas across Central Texas, and the
Brazos Valley region could see rainfall totals from 1.5 to 3
inches with a 10% chance of seeing rainfall totals near 4 inches
through Friday morning. A Flood Watch is now in effect from
Thursday morning through Friday morning. Instances of flash
flooding especially in low-lying areas and near creeks and
streams is possible if several rounds of heavy rain occur over the
same locations. Continue to monitor the forecast and be alert for
possible Flood Warnings.

The main line/cluster of showers and storms is expected to exit
our area before midnight, but some lingering light/moderate
showers may continue into Friday morning across the
northern/eastern zones. As rain chances ends, cloudy skies and
light northerly winds will persist into Friday morning.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Onward/

The upper low responsible for Thursday/Thursday night`s
convection will lift northeast across Missouri on Friday, shifting
most of the precipitation east of North and Central Texas. A
trailing shortwave, however, will bring one last opportunity for
precipitation Friday afternoon as it moves quickly east across the
region. Afternoon convection would be isolated in nature, and
confined to the Red River where the best lift will occur, or
across the southern-most counties which will be closest to a
surface front. The front will be located somewhere over Southeast
Texas, which is where most of Friday`s convection will occur.
Otherwise, a seasonable Friday is expected with highs in the
lower 80s.

A mid level ridge will build overhead this weekend, bringing
rain-free weather and a warming trend Friday through Monday. Highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday will increase to the
lower and middle 90s for Sunday and Monday, which will be
generally between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. A shortwave
rounding the northern flank of the ridge will bring thunderstorms
to the Plains on Sunday, but will do little more here than drawing
Gulf moisture north through the forecast area. Dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s will become common starting Sunday,
creating heat indices between 95 and 100.

A second, stronger shortwave will push a front south to near the
Red River on Tuesday, possibly bringing a slight chance of storms
to the northern-most counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. It is
possible, however, that subsidence from the ridge will be strong
enough to shut down any convective attempts. The front will become
stationary somewhere near the Red River, bringing slightly better
storm chances as another shortwave approaches around the middle
part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...none today. Multiple rounds of showers and storms
Thursday and Thursday night.

For the rest of the day, VFR conditions under a SCT/BKN deck of
high clouds. No aviation concerns expected in the next 12-15
hours before rain and storm chances return on Thursday. Latest
guidance still show storms approaching the area around 15Z with
the best window for storms to impact the sites between 17-23Z.
Some of these storms may be strong or severe with a hail threat
and heavy rainfall. Additional isolated/scattered activity may
linger until 04-05Z. Outside of the potential for gusty erratic
winds with any thunderstorms, winds should prevail from the south-
southeast between 5-15 kt.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  79  65  82  67 /  20  70  60  20  10
Waco                67  75  65  82  66 /  10  90  50  10  10
Paris               66  81  64  82  64 /   5  40  70  30  20
Denton              67  78  62  80  63 /  20  70  60  20  10
McKinney            68  78  64  81  64 /  10  60  60  20  10
Dallas              70  79  65  84  66 /  20  70  60  20  10
Terrell             67  79  65  81  64 /  10  70  60  20  10
Corsicana           68  79  66  83  66 /  10  90  60  20  10
Temple              65  77  64  82  64 /  10 100  40  10  10
Mineral Wells       66  75  62  80  63 /  30  80  50  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
TXZ133>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$