Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 142344
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Weather will remain quiet overnight as northerly winds decrease to
around 5 mph. Expect clear conditions to continue through Thursday
morning, before high level clouds stream in during the afternoon.
Northerly winds will turn westerly, and eventually southerly by
the afternoon hours.

Hernandez

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 353 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018/
/Tonight/

Temperatures will fall quickly again tonight as winds slacken (and
go nearly calm for a while) as high pressure begins to shift off
to the south and east of the region. Southwesterly surface winds
will return after midnight and will begin to transport some higher
dewpoints into the region. This will keep temperatures from
falling to the levels we saw earlier today, but most locales will
fall below freezing outside of the Metroplex and our southwestern
counties. Some patchy frost will be possible as well.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018/
/Thursday through next Wednesday/

Our quiescent stretch of weather will continue through the end of
the week and into Saturday as broad, low-amplitude cyclonic flow
develops across most of the CONUS. A notable warming trend will
occur during this period as southwesterly flow begins to deepen
across North and Central Texas. Highs on Thursday will jump into
the low to mid 60s west of I-35 (low-mid 50s will hang on across
our far eastern counties), and then into the mid and upper 60s on
Friday and Saturday (which is near-normal for this time of year).

Our attention will then be turning to another cold front, which
may be pushing into our far northwestern counties by early
Saturday evening. This front should initially push into our
forecast area without much in the way of precipitation, although
some patchy drizzle may be possible across our northwest in the
post-frontal airmass as the saturated layer increases past 850
mb. Thankfully, the airmass behind this next front doesn`t look as
cold as the front which roared through the region on Monday, and
no sub-freezing temperatures are anticipated before precipitation
chances come to an end.

As this front continues to press eastward overnight Saturday and
into Sunday, it will encounter somewhat greater low-level
moisture. Moisture depth appears sufficient to warrant some 20-30%
PoPs with cold frontal passage Saturday night, with somewhat
higher values Sunday morning and afternoon east of I-35 as the
front pushes through our area. Instability appears too low to
warrant an inclusion of a thunder mention at this juncture. High
temperatures on Sunday will be steady or slowly fall under the
influence of low-level cold advection. Lows Sunday night and into
Monday will range from the lower 40s across Central Texas to the
lower 30s near the Red River.

While the surface front will make it all the way to the Gulf on
Monday, modest warm advection/isentropic upglide will continue
across our Central Texas counties where we`ll hold onto some low
(20%) PoPs. Some of this activity may attempt to build northward
towards the I-20 corridor on Tuesday, but any coverage is expected
to remain quite low at this time.

The weather during the extended reaches of this forecast remains
unclear, as the sensible weather impacts here will rely a great
deal on what happens with digging shortwave energy across the
Pacific early next week. Every now and then, global guidance
hints at the development of a substantial cutoff upper-low out
near 150W on Tuesday, which ultimately slows the progression of
another shortwave which will be drifting across the southwest US
and into Texas. The 12z GFS offered up one of these solutions.
However, most guidance like the ECMWF and experimental FV3 have
maintained more stable run-to-run consistency and maintain a
faster overall progression. We`ve leaned more heavily on these
quicker solutions, indicating increasing rain chances on
Wednesday and Wednesday night as this system zips across Texas.
Cooler mid-level temperatures will result in steeper mid-level
lapse rates and better available buoyancy to warrant an isolated
thunder mention across the region during this timeframe.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    33  60  41  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                29  61  41  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               26  53  36  63  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              27  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            27  57  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              34  60  42  67  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             27  58  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           31  57  40  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              31  62  40  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       30  63  39  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08



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