Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161946
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022/
/This afternoon through Tuesday/

The effective front, which had its southward journey aided by last
night`s convective activity, has become stalled along a Graham to
Waco to Hearne line. To the north of the front, some welcome
"cooler" temperatures are found this afternoon, but high
temperatures will still be in the mid and upper 90s to the south
of the front. The front will become more diffuse during the
afternoon and winds will veer easterly and southeasterly across
the region into the evening hours. Due to a lack of forcing for
ascent and a dissipating boundary, rain-free weather will prevail.

Convection is expected to fire across eastern New Mexico and move
into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas this evening. This
convection will not be particularly vigorous, but moderate
westerly flow in the mid levels and its outflow boundary will
propel it east into Oklahoma and possibly Northwest Texas
overnight. The airmass over North Texas will remain fairly dry and
stable, but some very weak elevated instability may exist across
the northwest zones to support a few elevated showers or a weak
dying storm. PoPs will be set at 10% or less after midnight
across the northwest zones.

The mid level cloud cover from this convection will linger into
Tuesday and with that mid level instability remaining, there
could be a few isolated showers or sprinkles. Meanwhile in the low
levels, the winds will become more southwesterly and result in
strong warm advection in the 700-925mb layer. The extra clouds
should help keep temps from getting too out of control, but still
a hotter day is forecast with highs near or above 100 in the
western zones, decreasing to the mid 90s along the I-35 corridor
and lower 90s in the east. Tuesday`s record highs for both DFW
and Waco are 96 and are in danger of being tied or broken.
Southerly breezes will increase to 15 to 25 mph, and dewpoints
will fall into the 40s out west to the low 60s in the east. Both
will work to take the edge off of the heat.

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Unseasonable heat will continue to be the main forecast highlight
through the end of the work week as weak zonal flow aloft keeps
quiet weather in place. High temperatures will reach into the 90s
each day, with temperatures between 100-105 degrees expected
across western North and Central Texas.

Well finally see a pattern shift late this week, with daily
rain/storm chances returning across varying portions of the area.
The first round of showers and storms may occur ahead of a
dryline Thursday evening, but most of this activity will likely
remain just to our west. The dryline should mix further east on
Friday, with better chances for showers and storms expected across
portions of the area Friday evening. Additional chances for rain
and storms are anticipated over the weekend with the arrival of a
late-season cold front. Cooler temperatures behind the front will
bring some much needed relief from the heat, with high
temperatures only in the upper 70s and 80s both Saturday and
Sunday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 206 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022/
/18z TAFs/

The DFW TAF sites are to the north of a stalled front that`s
located nearly on top of Waco at this time. This front will
dissipate this afternoon, and winds will begin to gradually swing
around from the north to the east late this afternoon and
southeast this evening. Speeds will be 10kt or less through
sunrise. Stronger southerly winds will develop Tuesday after
sunrise, with speeds near 15kt and gusty by the afternoon hours.

VFR will prevail through the period with generally clear skies
this afternoon and evening. Some increasing mid and high clouds
will occur late this evening into tomorrow as remnant convective
debris from storms well to our west track across the region. Have
included a TEMPO at Waco for brief high MVFR CIGs where moisture
and return flow should result in a stratus deck across parts of
Central Texas.

TR.92

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  96  73  97  73 /   5   5   0   0   5
Waco                70  96  71  97  71 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               68  91  71  91  71 /   5   5   0   0   5
Denton              70  96  71  97  72 /  10  10   0   0   5
McKinney            70  94  72  94  72 /   5   5   0   0   5
Dallas              74  96  74  96  74 /   5   5   0   0   5
Terrell             71  94  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           70  95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              69  96  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70 101  71 101  72 /  10  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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