Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

/Through Tuesday/

A Pacific front has moved into the I-35 corridor this morning,
scouring low-level moisture in the process. This will mean
continued clearing through the morning with all precipitation
exiting the area to the southeast over the next couple of hours. A
breezy day will follow due to a sharp surface pressure gradient
in place associated with a deep surface low drifting east through
Oklahoma. Across North Texas, sustained winds around 15-20 mph
can be expected with gusts up around 30 mph at times through
midday. These values will be rather marginal when it comes to Wind
Advisory criteria, and one does not appear necessary at this
time. Winds across Central Texas will be a bit lower with a
broader gradient in place there. Winds will weaken late this
afternoon and evening while a weak trailing cold front gets pulled
through the forecast area. Cold/dry advection behind this
boundary will allow overnight lows to fall into the 40s or upper

Light north winds will prevail through Tuesday, with modest cold
advection preventing highs from climbing much above 60 degrees
for most locations. Late in the day, a strong upper trough will
dig southeastward into the Southern Plains within northwest flow
aloft, and its attendant cold front will approach the CWA by late
afternoon. While profiles appear to be quite dry with moisture
scoured by today`s system, there will be some very strong ascent
associated with this trough. We`ll have to keep an eye on a low
potential for some precipitation late Tuesday afternoon or
evening, simply due to this system`s ample dynamics which may be
able to squeeze out what little moisture is available.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 158 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/
/Mid Week Through Next Weekend/

The mid week period will start off feeling like Winter and be
quite windy and chilly. As the initial system moves rapidly off to
the northeast, another strong mid level impulse arrives in it`s
wake. This second impulse will help to amplify the larger longwave
trough centered over the Midwest and Plains. Luckily, the moisture
profile in the thermodynamic environment will be quite dry in the
low levels with the better elevated frontogenesis and lift
remaining north of the Red River Valley up into Eastern Oklahoma
and the Ozarks. This will allow a much deeper front up through
850mb to pass southward across the area with 850mb temperatures
of -5 to -10 Deg C across much of the area. After lows Wednesday
morning fall into the 30s and lower 40s, highs will struggle to
rise into the 40s with the exception of Central Texas where a few
readings may reach around 50 degrees thanks in part to stronger
insolation and relatively warmer 850mb temperatures.

In addition to the cold temperatures, unidirectional northerly
flow through 850mb upwards to 40 knots will easily transfer this
momentum to the surface with gusty north winds of 20 to 30 mph.
Wind chills will begin in the 20s Wednesday morning, before winds
gradually diminish in the afternoon, as cold Canadian high pressure
slides gradually in from West TX.

With clear skies, and the surface decoupling from the stronger low
level flow above, Thursday morning will be the coldest of the week
with most areas well below freezing and abundant frost across the
area. As the cold surface highs progressively shifts east of the
area by Thursday afternoon, plentiful sunshine and the arriving
of modest southwest winds 10 to 15 mph will allow for quite the
diurnal recovery in temperatures back into the mid 50s to lower
60s. The moderation trends will continue as we end the week and
move into next weekend, as the deep cyclonic flow overhead dampens
in response to the deep mid level low moving northeast across the
Great Lakes and toward Hudson Bay Canada.

By the weekend, shortwave mid level ridging and height rises will
result in broad subsidence and Spring-like high temperatures well
up into the 60s and even into the lower 70s for a few areas.
During this time, a new system will be organizing along or just
off the West Coast of WA/OR/and CA. By the end of the weekend,
this system digging across the Desert Southwest will allow for
flow aloft to orient southwesterly, while low level southerly flow
increases moving toward the end of the weekend into early next.
After a dry week into much of next weekend, it appears an unsettled
pattern return for early next week with increasing rain and
convective chances. After all of the rain the first half February,
it should be a nice reprieve this next week to allow soils to
continue drying out before next substantial rainfall hits towards
the end of the month.



/12z TAFs/

Low-level moisture has been scoured with the arrival of WSW
winds, and skies have gone VFR at all airports where they`ll
remain through the period. The main concern over the next several
hours is the potential for some crosswind issues on N-S oriented
runways, with westerly winds expected to increase to 15-20 kts
with gusts as high as 30 kts. This window should be fairly short-
lived however, with winds veering to the northwest this afternoon
while remaining around 20 kts. Winds will lessen this evening
while veering to the north as a weak secondary cold front moves
through the area. Some VFR cigs around 5-10 kft could accompany
the front`s attendant shortwave late tonight.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  42  59  36  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                68  41  62  33  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               59  39  58  36  44 /   0   0   0   5   0
Denton              62  40  59  34  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            62  39  58  36  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              63  42  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  40  60  36  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           66  40  61  37  48 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              69  41  63  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  41  58  32  48 /   0   0   0   0   0




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