450
FXUS64 KFWD 221047
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances return to North Texas this afternoon and evening.
  Some storms could become severe with large hail and damaging
  winds the main threats.

- Following seasonably hot and humid days on Friday and Saturday,
  more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
  cold front from Sunday evening into Monday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through most of next
  week with continued low rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made with the morning update other than to
account for ongoing temperature/dew point trends. PoPs were also
slightly adjusted to account for the latest guidance. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop along a southward boundary late
this afternoon through the evening, although there is a bit of
uncertainty regarding exact timing should the boundary slow down.
Regardless, any storms that manage to develop through the late
evening will be capable of large hail, and damaging winds.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday Night/

Quiet weather will continue across all of North and Central Texas
through the night with overnight lows across North Texas in the
low to mid 60s. Lows across Central Texas will be slightly warmer
as these will coincide with returning moisture from the south as a
warm front retreats back to the north through the early morning.

This moisture return will set the stage for the potential for
showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow aloft will move
across portions of the Oklahoma panhandle and southern Oklahoma
before reaching the Red River through the mid to late morning.
There is a low chance for some isolated activity across the Red
River through the morning hours but latest CAM guidance has pushed
this activity off closer to the early afternoon. Regardless,
expect the radar scope to begin to blossom through the day with
increasing coverage as early as 1 PM to our north. This activity
will gradually push south through the afternoon, where the
atmosphere will be primed for scattered severe thunderstorms. The
storm environment within the open warm sector will feature MUCAPE
values around 2,500-3,500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
0-6 km bulk shear between 30-50 knots. These conditions will be
supportive of producing severe weather, where the main threat
remains large hail with initial convection. Discrete, open sector
storms will also pose a threat for damaging winds and a low but
non-zero tornado threat. CAMs continue to suggest rapid upscale
growth as storms congeal as they move south through North Texas.
This will shift our greatest threat from large hail to damaging
winds as we move into the evening hours. The persistence and
maintenance of this evolving cluster of thunderstorms will dictate
how long into the evening these thunderstorms last, but we expect
activity to begin dissipating through the late evening as storms
move south into Central Texas.

Any and all convection will likely come to an end by midnight for
the entire region. There is a low chance for additional
convection across the Red River through the early morning hours on
Friday but confidence in this scenario right now is a bit low.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 248 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/
/Friday Onward/

The frontal boundary responsible for igniting Thursday`s
thunderstorm activity will be drawn farther northwestward on
Friday in response to strong lee cyclogenesis ahead of a deepening
western CONUS trough. This will place North and Central Texas in
a seasonably hot, humid, and unstable warm sector bounded by the
frontal zone well to our north and a sharpening dryline far to
our west. Despite strong instability, it is likely that our area
locally will remain stoutly capped as large scale ascent also
remains displaced to the northwest while southwesterly 700mb flow
reinforces the EML. The dryline located in western North Texas
and the Big Country could become active late Friday afternoon,
with residual convection possibly encroaching on our northwestern
zones later that evening prior to quickly dissipating. We`ll
carry <20% rain chances for our far northwestern zones during this
time period. Additional convection, perhaps in the form of one or
complexes, could traverse portions of southern Oklahoma overnight
into Saturday, but most of this activity is also expected to
remain removed from the CWA. One factor worth watching will be if
any of this convection could send an outflow boundary southward
into North Texas to aid with initiation later in the day, but this
small-scale low-probability scenario will remain unknown until
within the day one forecast period. Otherwise, expect seasonably
hot and humid weather to begin the holiday weekend with highs in
the 90s and heat index values approaching 100F.

On Sunday, the aforementioned frontal zone will be driven back
southward as a cold front as the upper trough makes further
eastward progress into the Central Plains. Its arrival in North
Texas should be accompanied by fairly widespread convection given
the amply moist and unstable buoyant sector ahead of it. While
shear will be rather modest at 20-30 kts, strong instability
could certainly support isolated severe hail/wind threats during
the evening and overnight hours. In addition, a roughly west/east
orientation of the boundary as well as west-east flow could
result in cell training and perhaps an increased flash flooding
threat Sunday night into early Monday morning. Precisely where
this swath of heavier rain could fall is still uncertain, but a
narrow corridor of as much as 3-5" rain amounts is certainly
plausible. Thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall could continue
into the daytime Monday before steadily tapering off by the
afternoon or evening as the slow-moving frontal zone finally
pushes south. Those with outdoor activities/events planned for
Memorial Day weekend will want to keep abreast of the forecast,
especially for the Sunday evening through Monday time window.

The cooler post-frontal airmass along with cloudy skies will hold
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday,
and below normal temperatures can actually be expected through
most of next week. Low rain chances will linger from Tuesday
through Thursday, although these rain chances will be much lower
than with the preceding frontal passage, and many areas could
remain dry through the midweek period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR ceilings, VCTS/TSRA this afternoon/evening.

A narrow corridor of low MVFR has developed and will be moving
over the D10 terminals within the next couple hours. The duration
of which will depend on how much these lower ceilings fill in,
with more widespread MVFR and IFR remaining further south. These
will continue to move up through the early to mid morning before
scattering out just before noon today. There is a bit of
uncertainty regarding the exact timing of VCTS/TSRA through the
afternoon and evening, and have opted to push everything regarding
convection back an hour. Exact timing will need to be closely
monitored through the day. A brief window of northerly winds may
follow any southward moving convection through the overnight
period with southerly flow returning tomorrow.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested in North Texas this
afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  69  90  74  93 /  50  40   5  10   0
Waco                93  70  91  72  94 /   5  20   0   0   0
Paris               84  64  83  71  88 /  50  20  10  20   5
Denton              91  64  88  71  93 /  50  40  10  10   0
McKinney            88  65  87  72  91 /  50  40  10  10   0
Dallas              92  69  90  74  93 /  40  30   5  10   0
Terrell             89  66  89  72  91 /  30  30   5   5   0
Corsicana           92  70  92  74  93 /   5  20   0   5   0
Temple              95  70  93  72  95 /   5  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  65  91  71  96 /  50  30   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$