Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231620 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1120 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The short term forecast remains in good shape this morning with
only a few minor tweaks to daytime high temperatures. A large
stratus deck blankets the area as strong southerly flow has
transported moisture northward. Satellite imagery does indicate
that there is some gradual erosion of low clouds from west to
east with a larger cirrus plume overspreading the mid-level
shortwave ridge axis across the Southern Plains.

The inherited short term forecast seems reasonable with the
warmest conditions out west and cooler conditions east.
I nudged high temperatures down a few degrees for areas east of
I-35 and north of I-20 where cloud cover will likely persist a bit
longer this afternoon. It`ll also be breezy today with sustained
speeds in the 15 to 25 MPH range. Wind gusts to near 35 MPH are
also expected, especially for areas that see a bit more sun.

We will continue to monitor the latest model trends for what
appears to be a wet and stormy latter half of the weekend and into
next week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 656 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

MVFR ceilings will prevail at the TAF sites through 18z today.
Ceilings will then improve into the VFR category early this
afternoon as deeper mixing occurs. Ceilings will lower back into
the MVFR category after 06z Saturday. Expect south winds 15 to 20
knots through 12z Saturday with gusts to near 30 knots at times
late this morning through tonight.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
/Through tonight/

Skies will be mostly cloudy today across all but the west, where
clearing is expected this afternoon. Highs range from the mid 70s
northeast to the mid to upper 80s west. With deepening low
pressure across eastern Colorado, it will be breezy today with
south winds 15 to 25 mph with some gusts to 35 mph along and west
of the I-35 corridor.

Expect mostly cloudy skies tonight. The atmosphere may not
decouple, so have kept winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  There
could be a few warm advection showers but chances are 10 percent
or less, so have not included any mention of showers in the
forecast. Lows will be in the 60s area wide.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
/Saturday through the end of next week/

This weekend...
Texas and the Southern Plains will be dominated by an upper
ridge, keeping temperatures well above normal for this time of
year. Saturday and Sunday high temperatures will be enhanced by
the approach of a slow-moving cold front, which will have been
pushed south by a fast-moving shortwave rounding the top of the
ridge. The boundary is expected to become quasi-stationary over
the northwestern counties on Saturday as the shortwave quickly
exits to the east. This will make the western counties most
susceptible to pre-frontal compressional warming on Saturday,
where upper 80s look plausible for Max Temperature grids.

The front will then lift back to the north Saturday night and
Sunday as the next upper trough deepens over the western CONUS.
A few elevated storms will become possible north of the boundary
across the northwest counties Saturday night, a few of which could
produce small hail.

Additional storms will become possible late Sunday afternoon as a
dryline encroaches on the western border of the CWA. The strongest
lift should remain west of the region during this time. This and
the presence of a capping inversion means that convective coverage
will likely remain isolated. That said, any storm which develops
could become severe and pose a large hail and damaging wind

Next week...
Stronger lift will arrive Sunday night into Monday as a lead
shortwave approaches ahead of the western trough. This will bring
better chances of convection as we get into the late Sunday
evening and overnight hours. A region of 40 to 50 POPs has been
added to counties west of I-35/35W for Sunday evening, with this
area spreading northeast to the Red River overnight Sunday night
into Monday morning. Despite the unfavorable time of day, a few
severe storms are not out of the question with hail being the
primary threat.

The main trough will dig southeast and begin to cut-off over
Arizona Monday night. This will place a good chunk of the Central
states (including North and Central Texas) in a region of ascent
which is favorable for producing widespread showers and storms.
Some of these will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. The
threat for localized flooding will initially occur across the
northwestern third of the region Monday night into Tuesday, where
the strongest lift will be. The front will have started pushing
southeast again during this time, and will provide an additional
focus for development across the northwest.

The axis of locally heavy rain will gradually shift east across
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper low moves
into West Texas. The low will open up Wednesday night as it moves
northeast across Northwest Texas, pushing the front and associated
convection east of the Interstate 35 corridor. The now open upper
trough, the cold front and associated precipitation will race off
to the east on Thursday. The latest guidance has trended faster
with the upper level system, and this forecast package will
likewise be faster with the exit of precipitation to the east.
Will keep some low POPs east of I-35 on Thursday, with a dry
forecast beginning Thursday night and continuing through next



Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  66  87  65  86 /   5  10   5  20  30
Waco                82  64  86  65  85 /   5  10   5   5  10
Paris               76  62  82  61  74 /   5  10  10  20  40
Denton              79  64  86  62  83 /   5  10   0  30  40
McKinney            77  64  85  62  79 /   5  10   5  20  40
Dallas              79  66  87  65  84 /   5  10   5  20  30
Terrell             80  64  83  62  80 /   5  10   5  10  30
Corsicana           81  64  84  64  82 /   5  10   5   5  20
Temple              81  64  85  65  84 /   5  10   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       83  62  89  62  90 /   0   5   0  20  30




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