693
FXUS63 KGID 182004
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
304 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed along the
  cold front this afternoon are expected to persist into this
  evening. Initial storms may be capable of producing hail to
  the size of two inches, but the greater threat will be wind
  gusts up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado/landspout cannot be
  ruled out as well. The main timeframe for possible severe
  weather will be between 3PM and 10PM today.

- After the severe threat diminishes late this evening, more
  widespread non-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected
  to fill in across the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2
  inches...with locally higher amounts...possible. This could
  result in localized flooding.

- Much cooler temperatures (60s and low 70s) and continued
  unsettled weather is expected Wednesday. Temperatures will
  return to normal (mid-80s) and above normal (90s) by the end
  of the week and through the weekend. Additionally...off and on
  low end thunderstorm chances will be possible across at least
  part of the forecast area each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This afternoon and evening...

The main story with this forecast involves the showers and
thunderstorms that have already developed along the boundary of
a cold front moving east through the forecast area. Some of
these storms are expected to be strong to severe. Initially
late this afternoon hail to the size of two inches may be
possible in the strongest storms, but more likely hail sizes
would be closer to the size of quarters or half dollars. The
more widespread threat, especially as these storms evolve into a
more linear system, will be damaging winds up to 70 mph. An
isolated brief tornado/landspout or two may be possible as well,
but chances are low. The main timeframe of severe weather will
be 3PM to 10PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
areas of the forecast area roughly along and east of a line from
Belgrade to Shelton to Stamford in south central Nebraska and
across all of our north central Kansas counties, until 8PM this
evening. This includes the towns of Grand Island and Hastings,
but does not quite extend to the town of Kearney.

Tonight and Wednesday...
As the chance for severe weather diminishes late this evening,
an upper level disturbance will swing across the area tonight
and Wednesday. As this moves over the frontal boundary, this
will enhance the chances for more widespread rain and
thunderstorms across the area...and potentially rainfall amounts
of 1-2 inches mainly approximately from the tri-cities and areas
south and east of that in south central Nebraska, and across the
entirety of north central Kansas. Locally heavier rainfall may
be possible south and east and this could result in localized
flooding. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain cool with highs
in the 60s across the area.

Thursday and Friday...
Another front is expected to move across the area Thursday,
then somewhat stall north of the area Friday. This will bring
shower and thunderstorm chances to much of the area Thursday,
and to northern portions of the forecast area Friday evening.
Weak upper level ridging will allow temperatures to warm back to
normal to above normal temperatures, with highs in the 80s
(normal) Thursday and in the 80s and low 90s Friday.

This weekend...
Generally, an upper level trough will move across the area
Saturday followed by an approaching ridge Sunday. Periodic low
chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day, but
currently it looks like most of the area should remain dry most
of the time. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s across
the area. Low end chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front moving through the area today and Wednesday will
bring mainly MVFR CIGS (IFR CIGS possible later in the period) and
periods of SHRA and TSRA to the TAF sites throughout the TAF
period. -TSRA is expected to develop near the TAF sites this
afternoon around 18/19Z or so...included a TEMPO group for -TSRA
to try to narrow down expected impacts at the terminals. Latest
models have SHRA/TSRA much of the time over southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area (including KGRI) with potentially
another round moving into KEAR late this evening overnight
(which is why VCTS is included for KGRI through the majority of
the period but there is a period where we left VCTS off in
relation to KEAR). TSRA activity should decrease around sunrise
across the area but showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through 19/18Z. Around 19/12Z CIGS are expected to
deteriorate further into IFR conditions.

Winds: Winds will become northwesterly as the cold front passes
through (around 18Z-19Z today at KGRI). There will be isolated
gusts of 20-25 kts through the afternoon, becoming 10-15 kts
sustained through the evening. Tonight into Wednesday morning,
winds will become northeasterly, also at 10-15 kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford