Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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308 FXUS63 KGID 251743 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect from 1pm to 7pm for southeastern portions of the area as heat index values climb to around 105 degrees. Heat index values around 100 degrees possible outside of the advisory. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) this afternoon-evening however there is uncertainty on how widespread this activity will be. - More widespread precipitation chances arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday. - Scattered precipitation chances (15-30%) continue Friday and through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today... Another warm day is expected across the area, with highs climbing into the 90s and 100s. A passing cold front will help to keep northern portions of the area "cooler" with heat index values remaining in the upper 90s. Southeastern portions of the area are expected to be the warmest, with a Heat Advisory in effect from 1 to 7pm today. Those under a Heat Advisory will see heat index values climb to around 105 degrees this afternoon. As the cold front progresses south this afternoon, thunderstorm development is possible (15-25%) along the front. There continues to be considerable uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorm development will be this afternoon/evening. Most CAMs indicate the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast area this afternoon. It is possible however, that the environment remains capped and thunderstorm development is prevented (similar to the scenario depicted by the 06z HRRR). SBCAPE values of 3000 J/Kg combined with 0-6km shear of 35-40kts will allow for thunderstorms that do develop to become strong to severe. The main severe weather concerns will be for large hail and damaging wind gusts, though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Overall, precipitation chances remain low (15-25%) and confined to areas mainly east of Highway 281 where models have had the most consensus on thunderstorm development. Wednesday and Thursday... Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with light easterly winds. Dry weather is expected through the daytime hours on Wednesday. Thunderstorms that develop off the western High Plains will move into the area late Wednesday night-early Thursday morning. This will bring the next widespread chance (45-65%) for precipitation to the area. Scattered to widespread shower/storms will continue Thursday morning as the rain gradually shifts east. Highs on Thursday look to be cooler due to persistent cloud coverage, with highs in the upper 70s (northeast) to mid 80s (southwest). Additional thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) Thursday afternoon-overnight as thunderstorms move in off the western High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, but the environment will likely depend on how showers/storms move through Thursday morning. Friday into next week... Any lingering rain will come to an end Friday morning. Highs on Friday will climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Active weather continues through the weekend as a series of shortwave troughs bring chances for precipitation to the area. Saturday and Sunday look to be cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Cooler weather will be short lived as warmer temperatures return early next week with highs in the 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the forecast period. Winds will remain out of the south early this afternoon, gradually turning to the north as a cold front slips into the region later this afternoon. There is a concern that a few isolated strong to marginally severe storms might develop along the front should the cap break. Confidence in timing and location of storms this afternoon/evening is very low, and did not feel that a mention in prevailing conditions was warranted at this time. Winds will remain out of the north through the rest of the TAF period around 5-10kts. A few high clouds may move in later in the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087. KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Wekesser