895
FXUS63 KGID 292026
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk of severe storms mainly Monday evening
  across south central and central Nebraska. There is a threat
  of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- Heat index values may get near or reach 105 degrees Monday
  across portions of north central Kansas.

- There is more uncertainty in regards to heat on Tuesday, but
  some locations across north central Kansas and far southern
  Nebraska may reach or exceed heat index values of 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today through Sunday night...

An upper level trough is over the Midwest and northern and central
Plains. A cold front has moved into south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will
range from the mid 70s to mid 80s with northerly winds. Winds become
easterly tonight as the surface high moves eastward. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible (15% to near 40% chance) late
tonight into Sunday morning across mainly north central Kansas as a
shortwave moves over/near the area. Showers and storms are expected
to continue through at least the morning hours on Sunday. Winds will
primarily be out of the east to southeast Sunday afternoon with an
upper ridge over the southern Plains. Showers and storms will remain
possible (15% to near 25% chance) Sunday afternoon with the
shortwave still over the area. High temperatures on Sunday are
expected to range from the mid to upper 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely increase across the area Sunday night (up
to around a 50% chance) as another shortwave moves over the area.
Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the low to mid
60s.

Monday and Monday night...

Showers and thunderstorms may remain (15% to near a 60% chance)
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
through Monday morning. The NAM12 is showing a warm front moving
northward through Kansas on Monday possibly reaching the Nebraska
border. An upper trough will begin moving over the northern and
central Plains by Monday evening and will provide increased lift.
These parameters along with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse
rates will allow for some storms, mainly Monday evening, to become
severe. South central and central Nebraska are in a slight risk per
the SPC Day 3 outlook. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
will be possible. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north
the warm front will get on Monday which will influence high
temperatures. Generally expect high temperatures to range from the
upper 70s to around 100 degrees. Heat indices may approach or
reach 105 degrees across portions of north central Kansas. Low
temperatures Monday night are expected to range from the mid 60s
to near 80 degrees.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

A cold front will move into the region as an upper trough passes
over the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front Tuesday afternoon.
High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 80s
to around 100 degrees. There is some uncertainty with high
temperatures on Tuesday due to the cold front and possible (15% to
near 30% chance) showers and thunderstorms developing along the
front. If temperatures are on the warm side, heat indices may
get up to or possibly exceed 105 degrees across portions of
north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska on Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances (up to around a 55% chance) will
continue into Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will mostly be in the 60s.

Wednesday through Friday night...

High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to warm up into the mid
80s to lower 90s with southeast winds. Rain and storm chances
continue into Wednesday (15% to around 35%) and increase Wednesday
night (up to around a 50% chance) as a shortwave moves over the
area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will generally be in the 60s
with south to southeast winds. A cold front will begin moving into
Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday as an upper trough moves over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest. High temperatures on Thursday are
expected to range from the lower 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures
Thursday night will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday due to the cold front
with highs mainly in the 80s. Low temperatures Friday night are
expected to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Gusty north
winds will weaken some and become northeast by 00z. Winds will
become easterly by 09z and will be out of the southeast by 15z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt