065
FXUS63 KGID 140845
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
345 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures continue through next week
  (highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s).

- Low-end chances for showers/t-storms (15-25%) Sunday
  night through Monday.

- Windy Monday and Tuesday. Southeast winds gusting 30-40 MPH.

- Rain/t-storms become likely (50-60%) Tuesday night, with
  continued off/on thunderstorm chances through the rest of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Near-term models still show potential for a short window of low
stratus this morning, mainly in the 6-8am timeframe. Showers/thunderstorms
are expected to remain to the northwest of the local forecast
area this afternoon, but cloud cover will keep temperatures
slightly cooler than on Friday. That said, high temperatures in
the low to mid 80s are still a couple degrees above normal for
mid-September.

Sunday will trend a couple degrees warmer, but will otherwise be
fairly similar to today. Low chances for showers and
thunderstorms return Sunday night through Tuesday as subtle
shortwaves eject from the deep upper low over the west coast.
South to southeasterly winds will also increase Monday into
Tuesday as this system gradually approaches from the west.
Currently, the forecast is for wind gusts generally 25-35 MPH
on Tuesday, but there is potential for these to trend upwards.
NBM percentiles show a 50% chance for peak wind gusts to exceed
45 MPH over the western half of the forecast area.

More widespread rain/tstorm chances then arrive Tuesday night as
this system ejects over the Northern Plains. PoPs have increased
to the "likely" range (55%+), and global ensembles shows 30-50%
for 0.25" of rain through Wednesday morning.

As this system departs to the north, another upper trough will
begin approaching from the west for the latter half of next
week. Daily chances (20-30%) for rain/thunder continue Wednesday
and Thursday, with increasing chances (40-60%) as the system
moves through the Central/Northern Plains Friday into Saturday.

In total, the global ensembles continue to favor us eliminating
our September precipitation deficit. Over the next 10 days, the
EPS/GEFS/GEPS "super-ensemble" indicates a 60-90% chance for
1.00" or more of rain across the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The main concern in this TAF period is the potential for a brief
window of MVFR to IFR stratus (and possibly minor visibility
restriction) over the eastern half of Nebraska on Saturday
morning (roughly 12-15Z). There could be a substantial
difference in flight conditions between GRI and EAR. Per the
latest NBM, GRI has a 40% chance for IFR ceilings at 13Z, while
EAR only has a 30% chance for even MVFR ceilings.

Any stratus and fog should move out fairly quickly, with
southeast winds increasing to 5-15kt late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels