046
FXUS63 KGLD 280809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the area
  late Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are
  possible. At this time, brief/localized instances of damaging
  wind appear to be the primary hazard.

- Daily potential for afternoon/evening storms this weekend into
  next week.

- Heat index values in the low triple digits Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

As of 0135 UTC (735 pm MDT).. radar/observational trends and
simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 00Z HRRR suggest
little, if any, potential for convective development through
the duration of the evening. High based convection presently
developing along/east of the I-25 corridor (mainly south of
Denver) will track east toward the CO-KS border late this
evening. While brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph cannot
be ruled out with any high-based showers/virga (by virtue of
moderate to strong DCAPE, ~1200-1800 J/kg).. substantial
intensification of said activity is presently not anticipated.
With the above in mind, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
(previously in effect until 03Z UTC) has been canceled.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy mix. Scattered showers are occurring around
the area. Breaks in the cloud cover through the day has allowed for
temps as of 200 PM MDT to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s. With a
meandering surface trough over the Highway 27 corridor, winds ahead
of this are south-southwesterly with gusts up to 30 mph at times.
Along/west of this west-northwest flow is in place.

The main wx threats for the short term period will be the chances
for strong to severe storms each day, with the focus for late
afternoon/evening development.

As mentioned, there is currently a surface low/trough that has just
moved east of the Colorado border. There is a front attached to this
that stretches south into southwest Kansas. Aloft, the RAP40 500mb
analysis is showing a shortwave over southeast Colorado that will
lift into Kansas and interact with the surface features this
afternoon and tonight. From the latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest)
the latest HRRR is the most probable at this time showing convection
starting along the trough.

With convection already cropping up around/in the CWA, SPC has
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover expected convection
through 03z Friday. All threats on the table with decent instability
and high PW values, especially ahead of the boundary/trough. Winds
around 60 mph, hail 1-2 inches w/ parameters suggesting a tornado or
even landspout possible along the boundary. The HRRR does show this
activity pushing east by 03z-04z Friday with scattered convection
thereafter.

Going into Friday, similar situation to today. High pressure is
slowly settling east of region through Friday night. Looking at a
N/NE flow into the area through the period. A trough moves off the
Front Range as a front, settling south of the area by 12z Saturday.
It will be this front interacting with a another shortwave to
trigger another round storms. Afternoon and evening setup for these.
SPC still favors a Slight Risk for severe storms for much of the CWA
with hail and wind threats once again. PW values do shift east
through the period, but at least 0.80" in the west, up to 1-1.20"
east, so some heavy threat is possible.

For Saturday, slightly cooler air will be present over much of the
area through the day. The focus for strong to severe storms will be
along/south of Hwy 40 closest to the previous front that remains
over southern KS through the day. SPC carries a Marginal Risk for
severe storm potential there with wind and hail threats. There will
be chances north of Hwy 40, but a better stable airmass resides
lowering the severe threat.

For temps, highs on Friday will be ranging in upper 80s into the mid
90s. Going into Saturday, a range of 80s is expected with warmest
locales along/south of I-70. Lows tonight will range mainly in the
60s, with areas east of Highway 83 around 70F. For Friday night,
upper 50s west to the upper 60s east will give way to upper 50s to
lower 60s for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The southern ridge will loosen its grip as a shortwave trough
moves through the northern and central plains Monday and
Tuesday. Weak troughing continues on Wednesday before
transitioning to a northwest flow late in the week as a ridge
begins to strengthen in the Great Basin. Shower and thunderstorm
chances continue each day through the period, either associated
with the upper trough and its surface cold front early in the
period, or weak waves in the northwest flow later in the period.
Some severe chances can be expected with deep layer shear
varying between 30-50 kts each day, though instability tends to
be generally weak to occasionally moderate. Temperatures will
start out hot with triple digits on Monday, followed by less hot
but still above normal temperatures, mainly in the 90s, Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. 10-20 knot
south winds are anticipated to become light and variable
overnight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to ~15 knots
within a few hours after sunrise (~13-14Z).. becoming light and
variable once again during the early-mid afternoon. While a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at either terminal this evening
(and again on Friday).. confidence in thunderstorm development,
location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit
mention at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BV
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BV