Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
714 FXUS63 KGLD 172250 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 450 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado later this afternoon and move through northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska this evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds gusts between 60 and 80 mph and reduced visibility in blowing dust. - There will be an elevated fire weather risk in parts of northeast Colorado Friday afternoon. - Precipitation chances return for Friday and through the weekend. Best chances will be Saturday and into early Sunday with the main upper low moving across the area. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding may be a concern during that time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper low in the Great Basin will lift northeast into Wyoming tonight, with a negatively tilted trough axis moving through the local area. A fairly solid line of thunderstorms has been consistently forecast by the models the last few runs, developing along the southern Colorado Front Range and quickly moving northeast with the upper dynamics, reaching the Colorado-Kansas border area by around 01z, Highway 83 by around 03z, and continuing east but weakening afterwards. Main hazards with this line of storms will be wind gusts potentially between 60-80 mph and blowing dust, especially along the Kansas and Colorado border area. The line of storms may tend to weaken some as it moves east, but there will still be some potential for wind gusts of up to 60 mph. There is a low end risk for hail with the initial storms, perhaps a few instances up to quarter sized, but wind will be the main risk. Mean precipitation amounts are around a half inch in the Colorado/Kansas border area, and generally between a quarter and a half inch elsewhere, so flooding is not expected to be a concern as the line will be moving at a good clip. Precipitation should exit the area to the east by 06-07z with diminishing winds. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. The next system will dig along the Pacific west coast Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest flow ahead of it will result in warm and dry conditions both days. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A weak front will move through late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, shifting winds around to the northwest. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler on Thursday behind the front with highs in the low to mid 80s. Afternoon humidity does fall below 20 percent both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but winds will be light and not expecting fire weather concerns at this time. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper low slowly moves from southern California on Friday to the Four Corners by Saturday morning, then lifts into eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon and moves across the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday, continuing east from there into Missouri by Sunday night. End result will be increasing chances for precipitation, with best chances occurring as the upper low moves across Saturday and Sunday. Ahead of the system on Friday, may see some elevated fire weather concerns in northeast Colorado with hot and dry conditions and increasing southwest winds during the afternoon. On Saturday, there may be a severe threat with the approach of the upper low and a developing surface cyclone, but models still not in particularly good agreement on where that will occur. Nonetheless, with increasing deep layer shear and at least some instability to work with, could see a few severe storms. By Sunday, will be cool and stable with no severe storms expected. Latest statistics from the NBM shows mean rainfall amounts for the 48-hour period of around 1 inch and higher percentile amounts of up to 2.50 inches. As long as it does not occur in a short period of time, and that currently looks to be the case, this would be beneficial rainfall for the area which has been steadily slipping into drought the past several months. With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday. Lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 40s Monday morning. Northwest flow strengthens for Monday and Tuesday with the upper low transitioning to a trough to the east and a building ridge to the west. Might see a few isolated showers associated with any weak waves in the upper flow either afternoon, but most locations will be dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 450 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 KGLD...a line/broken line of thunderstorms are forecast to impact the terminal in the 00z-04z timeframe with the worst conditions (gusts to 50kts, blowing dust and sub VFR conditions) in the 00z-02z timeframe. Outside of convection, southerly winds gusting up to 40kts are forecast through 04z. From 05z-07z, southerly winds gusting to 35kts are forecast with VFR conditions anticipated. After 08z, south to southwest winds up to 11kts are forecast through 19z, increasing to around 12kts with some gusts after 20z. KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast from taf issuance through 01z. From 02z-05z, a line/broken line of thunderstorms is forecast to impact the terminal with wind gusts up to 40kts and potentially sub VFR visibilities due to heavy rainfall. After 06z, VFR conditions are expected. South to southwest winds up to 12kts are forecast. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...99