109
FXUS64 KHUN 300532 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The showers and thunderstorms that affected mainly eastern
portions of the area earlier this evening/afternoon have
dissipated. The sheared upr wave that helped to instigate this
activity has moved southward, while the loss of daytime heating
likewise contributed. Otherwise, there is little in the way to
help generate any further shower activity overnight. Upstream and
to our NW, a band of showers/thunderstorms has developed in the
southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley this evening as a
cold front continues to advance southward through that area.
Current estimated motion along with the latest hi-res CAMs would
not support its movement of into our area later tonight, and POPs
were lowered a little. At this time, it looks as though the
earliest development and/or movement of any showers/storms in our
area would occur mainly after 12Z, and perhaps closer to 14-15Z.
Otherwise, few edits were made to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Diurnal showers and storms will likely fire up again after
sunrise on Sunday. Morning showers will likely be very scattered
in nature with low rain chances included (20-30%) to reflect this.
With partly cloudy skies and dew points remaining in the mid to
upper 70s, heat index values will meet criteria for an additional
Heat Advisory. Sunday`s Heat Advisory will be in effect for the
whole area through 7 PM.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, PoP`s increase to 60-70% by
noon on Sunday and remain elevated until after sunset. Severe
indices for tomorrow afternoon look pretty poor favoring more
general thunderstorms with some potentially becoming strong.
Storms should wane as the sun sets with skies clearing as the
front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, a much
drier and cooler air mass will filter in from the north giving us
some brief relief from the heat. Dewpoints will fall to the 50s
with high temps in the low 90s on Monday. This will be short lived
however as mid 90 temps and 70+ dewpoints build back in by
Tuesday thanks to the return of high pressure and southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The heat and humidity will return mid to late week, including the
4th of July holiday as a strong mid/upper ridge will build into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, extending southward into the
Tennessee Valley. This will keep stalled boundaries (and their
focus for convection) well south along the Gulf Coast and allow a
hot/humid air mass to settle into the region. This will push
daytime highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
easily into the 100-105 degree range by Tuesday and potentially
above 105 degrees (Advisory criteria) for Wednesday and Thursday
(4th of July). Additional heat products may be needed later next
week. Low/medium chances (20-40%) for diurnally driven convection
will be present each day, but most locations will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A fairly tranquil night is expected, with perhaps some patchy fog
development through the overnight hours. This is especially true
for areas that saw the most rain yesterday (northeast AL and
portions of southern middle TN). Rain chances will then increase
through the morning hours, peaking during the afternoon. Heavy
downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds are all possible;
however, severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Slight
reductions in VIS and CIGs are likely in the heavier showers. Rain
chances then dwindle through early this evening, with no rain by
mid to late evening. Light winds tonight will become northerly and
increase to between 5-10 knots by this afternoon. Northerly winds
will persist into the evening, but decrease to be around 5 knots
or less.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26