470
FXUS62 KILM 290806
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
406 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate our weather
through the weekend. A cold front will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday.
Relatively cooler and drier conditions will arrive behind the
front on Tuesday with warmer and more humid air returning
gradually through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The subtropical ridge axis aloft will extend from Texas across the
Carolinas out to just north of Bermuda. The remnants of an old
surface front stalled in the area will shift north and weaken today
as southerly winds continue to bring heat and humidity onshore. This
steady onshore wind should produce a large coastal to inland
temperature gradient with forecast highs in the upper 80s on the
beaches to the mid 90s along and west of I-95.

Coupled with dewpoints in the 70s, afternoon heat indices will get
very close to the 105-degree trigger for a heat advisory across
parts of Robeson county and the northern Pee Dee region.

I`ve trimmed back rain chances somewhat versus previous forecasts.
Although there will be a far-penetrating seabreeze front today, the
upper level environment is warm and dry within the ridge aloft.
Isolated shallow convective showers this morning near the coast will
transition to isolated inland thunderstorms this afternoon, with
expected coverage only about 20 percent. Convective activity should
tend to dissipate this evening with generally dry conditions
expected overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A potent mid-level shortwave will dive down through the western
Great Lakes on Sunday and pivot through by late Monday. A cold
front will slide southeastward ahead of this feature, providing
a focus for convective development amidst a very moist airmass.
Guidance continues to suggest PWATs of around 2 sigma above
normal will precede the front on Sunday, with values around
2.25" and higher values certainly possible. This will bring an
unusually heavy rainfall threat with any showers or storms which
develop. Although some timing differences exist, it appears at
least the far NW zones around and west of I-95 should see
enhanced convective coverage by late in the afternoon and these
showers and storms should spread southeastward into the evening.
The strongest storms may bring an isolated damaging wind threat
via wet microbursts as water-laden storm cores come down amidst
DCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg, but weak effective shear should
preclude any organized severe weather threat.

Going into the night, the loss of daytime heating should result
in an overall weakening trend, and many of the showers may end
up dissipating in the first half of the overnight. Nevertheless,
with the approaching cold front in tandem with height falls and
PVA from the incoming shortwave trough, it seems that
convection should develop later Sunday night into Monday morning
along the front as it pushes into our CWA from the north. After
sunrise, daytime heating south of the boundary should allow new
convection to easily develop by late Monday morning along and
south of the front as it gradually shifts southward through the
day. Eventually, the front should push south of the forecast
area by late Monday night, bringing an end to the rainfall
across most of the area. Due to the convective nature of this
precip, widely varying totals are likely, but an areal average
of 0.5-1" with peak totals of 2-3" seem likely.

Temperatures on Sunday are likely to reach the mid-90s with
limited shower and storm coverage until late in the day. This,
combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, will likely
support Heat Advisory criteria (heat indices of 105-109F) being
met for several hours. Over Sunday night, lows generally in the
mid-70s are expected. On Monday, convective development should
keep temperatures in check, with only mid-80s expected. Finally,
drier air filtering in behind the front on Monday night will
help us cool below 70F for the first time in a long while, with
mid-upper 60s forecast away from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the shortwave driving the cold front pivots away, mid-level
ridging will rapidly build back in, causing the front to stall
and eventually wash out south of the forecast area. Strong
subsidence and dry air look to dominate through most of the
week, keeping daily pop-up shower chances mostly below average
for this time of year. As always, one cannot completely rule out
shallow showers along the sea breeze, but forecast soundings
depict a remarkably strong subsidence inversion which yields
virtually no convective instability through Thursday. By Friday,
there may finally be enough moisture in place and temperatures
hot enough to yield isolated to widely-scattered pop-up showers
and storms again, but this may very well coincide with
dangerously hot and humid conditions necessitating Heat
Advisories once again.

Before this arrives, take advantage of the relatively "cool"
and dry weather expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with morning
lows in the mid-upper 60s and daytime highs in the mid-80s on
Tuesday and around 90F on Wednesday. The warming and moistening
trend continues through the end of the week, with above-normal
highs and lows returning for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very humid airmass streaming onshore may result in MVFR to IFR
conditions developing inland after 09z. This potential has
moderate to high confidence at KFLO and KLBT, primarily in the
09-12z timeframe. Chances of MVFR ceilings at low at the
coastal airports of KMYR, KCRE, and KILM. Low clouds and any
inland fog should burn out between 12-14z with VFR conditions
expected to continue through the afternoon. Afternoon convection
should remain widely scattered with insufficient coverage for
mention in the TAFs.

Extended Outlook...An approaching cold front may trigger
thunderstorms Sunday night, especially across inland areas. As
the front nears the coast on Monday it appears this will trigger
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
An old front will dissipate this morning across the coastal
Carolinas. High pressure located well offshore will direct a light
southerly wind across the area today, with local enhancements in
wind speed expected due to seabreeze effects. Aside from isolated
morning showers, dry weather is expected to continue today and
tonight across the coastal waters.

Seas should average only 2 feet today, primarily in southeast 8 to 9
second swell, perhaps building toward 3 feet in height away from
shore across the NC waters late tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday...
South to southwesterly winds of 10-15 kts are expected on Sunday
ahead of a cold front. The front will bring a northeasterly wind
shift as it sinks southward late Monday into Monday night.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the boundary for Monday and Monday
night. Northeasterly winds around 10-15 kts continue through
Tuesday and veer to more easterly for Wednesday as high pressure
shifts offshore to our north. Seas will stay mainly in the 2-3
ft range through Monday, followed by 2-4 ft seas as persistent
northeasterly wind waves arrive behind the front through
Tuesday. Seas gradually subside through Wednesday as the
northeast flow weakens and veers to easterly. A 1-2 ft SErly
swell at 8-9 sec looks to persist through the period as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to
low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a
couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially
moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected
to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely
RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution
should be used, especially with the upcoming 4th of July Holiday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/ABW
FIRE WEATHER...