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FXUS64 KJAN 190521 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Rest of tonight...

Evening analysis indicate the Gulf Coast states trapped on the
western periphery of the stout ridge over the Mid Atlantic states
while deepening trough over the Intermountain West. Potential
Tropical Cyclone One (PTC1) remains over the open waters of the
Bay of Campeche, with deep fetch of anomalous tropical moisture
extending across a wide swath of the Gulf of Mexico & expected to
propagate into the western Gulf of Mexico. As the ridge at the sfc
& aloft sink in from the northeast, drier air (i.e. 00Z BMX
sounding observed < inch & a quarter PWs) is progged to build in.
This will help conditions become slightly more seasonable, maybe
a touch above normal, in the lower 70s & slightly warmer northwest
of the Natchez Trace. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Isolated showers will continue into tonight mainly in western
Mississippi. Overnight lows will remain seasonable despite the
cooler afternoon today as remaining high humidity that has settled
over the area will be slow to dry out despite an increasing easterly
fetch. By the early morning hours on Wednesday clouds thicken into
widespread overcast which will persist until mid morning. By that
point, the sun will begin breaking through and skies should largely
should clear, giving way to partly cloudy skies for Juneteenth.
Easterly winds may be breezy, particularly during the peak mixing
period of mid afternoon, and winds could gust up to 20 mph.

Later This Week...

The deep layer high situated off of the east coast will strengthen
and and the western flank will expand its influence locally.
Increasing heights aloft will bring generally clearer skies and
higher temperatures. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out for the rest of the week mostly along and south of the
Highway 84 corridor, mostly driven by intense afternoon heating.
Deep layer moisture will remain below climate normals through the
weekend and this should result in any showers or storms being
isolated and generally disorganized. Strong to severe storms are
unlikely though brief heavy downpours could be possible should any
isolated, brief afternoon thunderstorm manage to form.

The main hazard of concern for the area will be the risk for
excessive heat as dewpoints will recover by Saturday and Sunday into
the upper 60s F and lower 70s F after having fallen into the lower
and middle 60s through midweek. This coupled with temperatures into
the upper 90s F to near 100 F in some locations could result in heat
indices above 105 F. Heat hazard products may be required later this
week.

Into Next Week...

Dewpoints and overall boundary layer moisture will largely have
recovered across the area by Monday. This will likely allow us to
return to a more seasonal pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Heat risk could still
be a concern, but the overall risk will likely be modulated by
convective coverage and confidence in that hazard is low.

Tropics will remain active through the period with continued
unsettled weather likely in the Gulf of Mexico. There are little if
any current indications that this will pose a substantial risk
locally, but this area of disturbed weather will be monitored
closely as trajectories and intensities of any tropical feature
several days out carries large forecast uncertainty.

The vast majority of strong hurricanes occur after July 1 so as we
are now heading into the end of June, it`s a good time to review
your hurricane preparedness strategies and supplies. /OAJ/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Despite high clouds over the region, VFR flight categories will
prevail at most area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Some patchy
low stratus will be possible toward day break over namely KMEI,
KHBG & KPIB. This could briefly bring ceilings to MVFR status
between 10-13Z. This will quickly erode shortly after sunrise,
with a return to VFR categories expected through the remainder of
the forecast period. Winds overnight will be calm to light from
the west northwest around 3-5 knots. Winds will increase from the
east around 10 knots by late morning, with gusts around 20 knots
possible. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      90  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     90  72  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   91  72  93  72 /  20   0  10   0
Natchez       90  72  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    92  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     91  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

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