819
FXUS64 KJAN 150016 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
716 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Tonight through Sunday Night...

Much like a record on repeat, quiet and dry conditions will continue
tonight as global guidance continue to show sfc high pressure
ridging and dry northerly flow over the southeast CONUS. Heading
into the overnight period, a few high cumulus clouds will begin to
move into the forecast area from the north. With this limited cloud
cover, radiational cooling will occur across central MS. Because of
this, overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the area.
Forecast confidence continues to increase for increasingly hot
temperatures heading into Saturday, with temps nearing record highs.
A H5 590 dm ridge will be firmly entrenched over the southeastern
CONUS through the weekend. Under the high pressure, the dry airmass
will help afternoon highs peak into the 96 - 101 degree range
areawide with heat indices around 105 degrees. Because of this, no
changes have been made to the limited heat graphic for Saturday.

Later on Sunday, the sfc high will start to shift east enough to
allow moisture to wrap in across the southern areas introducing rain
and storm chances. With this increased moisture, northern areas will
see temps in the upper 90s and low 100s, especially where drier air
is in place and better mixing is likely. Heat indices will remain
in the low 100s across central MS, so will continue to message a
limited heat threat for Sunday as well. Heading into Sunday night,
rain chances will start to drop across southern areas with dry
conditions across northern areas. Overnight lows will drop into the
mid 70s across our CWA. /CR/

Monday through Friday...for the next work week, the
pattern will have shifted to one that is substantially more moist as
the region seeing deep layer SE/S flow get established with the
subtropical high centered well to the east. Tropical type moisture
will move in early Monday and characterized by PWs of 2.3-2.5
inches. Such moisture will support an increase in rain chances with
40-80% roughly from N to S. Also, more moisture and more clouds will
help keep temps in check as well, thus it won`t bas hot with lower
90s N to mid 80s S. Similar conditions are expected for Tue, but
rain chances are lower and range roughly from 20-40% (N to S). As
for the rain chances, activity looks to be mainly in the for of rain
showers with only low end potential for thunder. Warm midlevels and
moist profiles favor more efficient rain processes than thunder. The
GFS actually supports a window for training/backbuilding of precip
on Monday. If this signal can hold, will need to watch for flooding
potential. Right now we just don`t have the consistency or model
agreement to lean on such a solution, but definitely worthy to keep
an eye on.

For mid-week into Friday, more ridging aloft edges in but more
substantial is the increase in the surface ridge/pressures as the
high expands westward. This will promote more subsidence and drier
air moving E to W and reducing rain chances to less than 10%. Less
rain also means a bit warmer temps. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds will prevail at the
TAF sites through the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  97  74  97 /   0  10   0  20
Meridian      68 100  73  98 /   0  10   0  20
Vicksburg     67  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   70  99  73  95 /   0  10   0  40
Natchez       67  96  73  95 /   0  10   0  20
Greenville    69  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     68  98  76  99 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/CME/NF