Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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774 FXUS62 KJAX 181142 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 742 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 743 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Periods of MVFR ceilings between 2,000 and 3,000 feet will remain possible through the period at the northeast FL terminals, mainly as fast moving showers briefly move overhead. VFR conditions will prevail through at least 19Z at SSI before lower stratocumulus ceilings and the potential for showers increases during the late afternoon and evening hours. TEMPO groups were added at the Duval County terminals and SGJ from the late morning through the late afternoon hours, where a higher chance for sustained MVFR conditions and shower activity exists. A TEMPO group for MVFR conditions was also added at SSI for the late afternoon and early evening hours. Prevailing MVFR conditions are then expected at the regional terminals during the predawn hours on Wednesday as stratocumulus continues to stream onshore from the Atlantic waters. Easterly surface winds will quickly increase after 13Z this morning, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-20 knots and gusty. Sustained speeds at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals will likely climb to near 20 knots after 18Z, and any passing shower activity could produce gusts in excess of 30 knots through early this evening. Winds will be slow to subside overnight at the coastal terminals and will generally remain sustained around 15 knots, while speeds at the inland terminals decrease to 5-10 knots after 06Z. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Deep layer onshore flow will continue a breezy Easterly winds through the near term period with scattered showers moving onshore at times through tonight with an isolated thunderstorm not out of the question. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas. Easterly winds will increase during the daytime hours to sustained at 15-25 mph with peak gusts into the 30-40 mph range, likely remaining just below Wind Advisory levels. The onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip currents and rough surf of 3-5 ft will develop but Coastal Flooding is not expected at this time. Winds diminish over inland areas tonight with the Easterly flow will remain breezy along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers pushing onshore into the Atlantic Coastal areas at least as far inland to the US 17 corridor and the St. Johns River Basin through the night. Lows temps will fall into the upper 60s/near 70 across inland SE GA and lower 70s across inland NE FL, with the onshore flow keeping the Atlantic Coastal areas warm and muggy in the middle to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Surface high pressure ridge will be centered to the northeast through Thursday. This pattern will continue the onshore flow. Weak waves will move west through the flow, leading to enhanced winds, especially at the coast. These weak waves will also be responsible for helping to generate showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms during the heating of the afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday night, the high to the northeast will weaken and move further away to the northeast, as an inverted trough moves west toward the east coast of FL. Shower chances will continue into Thursday night, along with elevated and gusty winds. Due to the onshore flow, high temperatures will be below normal, while lows run near to a little above. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Weakening inverted trough will move west across area Friday through Friday night, as high builds further away to the northeast. Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast Saturday through Monday. This pattern will result in a flow more from the south southeast. This is a more moist flow pattern. Expecting greater than normal precipitation chances throughout this period. After a near normal temperature day on Friday, the rest of this period will trend above. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Small Craft Advisories will develop across the waters with Easterly winds around 20 knots and seas building to 6 to 8 feet and remaining this way through Thursday as the Easterly/Tropical wave pushes into the coastal waters Thursday Night or Early Friday, then winds will shift to the Southeast following the wave by this weekend with a decrease in wind speeds to 10-15 knots and slowly subsiding seas below headline levels. Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft today will build to 4-6 ft on Wednesday/Thursday. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 69 88 69 / 20 20 20 10 SSI 85 76 86 77 / 30 30 60 30 JAX 88 73 87 73 / 40 30 70 30 SGJ 87 76 87 76 / 40 30 80 60 GNV 91 72 90 71 / 20 20 50 20 OCF 92 73 91 73 / 20 30 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$