090
FXUS63 KJKL 031937
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
337 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a relative lull in precipitation lasting into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will
  increase at mid week.

- Somewhat cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold
  front which will pass on Thursday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

Fog is lifting across eastern Kentucky, becoming more of a low
cloud deck in some locations, but will quickly dissipate over the
next hour. Went ahead and removed fog wording from the forecast
products. In addition, loaded the latest observations for the
temps, dew points, and winds to make sure the near term forecast
is on track with the current conditions. This only resulted in
very minor changes. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. A new set of zones and HWO was sent out to remove the
morning fog wording.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

Have blended morning obs (temps, dew points, and sky cover from
satellite) into the forecast, without substantive changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 533 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

Clouds in the 2-10K ft range have been problematic to forecast
the coverage of during the night. Where they have been most
prevalent they have inhibited fog development which was
anticipated. Areas southwest of a line from around Mt. Vernon to
Middlesboro and near/north of I64 saw the most breaks in the
clouds and have had the most fog. Even so, it does not appear more
widespread than most summer nights, and the forecast has been
allowed to handle it without special products. By first light of
dawn the clouds were trending north and east, generally northeast
of a line from Irvine to Harlan, alleviating the fog that had
developed over the northern part of the area. What fog there is
will dissipate after sunrise.

Weak ridging aloft will be passing over from west to east today
with relatively dry air aloft. Surface flow will be weak, but a
somewhat moist air mass will remain in place, with dew points in
the lower to mid 60s. The deepest low level moisture is expected
to be over the northern portion of the forecast area, and both the
NAM and GFS have light precip there as convection bubbles up
during the day, and a 20% POP has been used. The HRRR also shows a
bit of convective precip over the more rugged terrain of
southeast KY this afternoon, and that can`t be completely ruled
out either. Any precip will eventually die out this evening as
stabilization occurs.

By Tuesday the aforementioned ridge will be to our east, and a
weak shortwave embedded in a larger area of troughiness will be
approaching from the west. This may bring more
showers/thunderstorms, especially with diurnal heating. The GFS is
the most aggressive with the precip making across the forecast
area on Tuesday, but even the NAM has some in our southwest
counties in the afternoon, while the HRRR has a spattering area
wide. A blended solution suggests a slight chance (20%) in our
eastern counties and a chance (30-40%) elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

The extended is still expected to start off quite active, as a
strong weather system moves through the region Wednesday through
Thursday. The pattern aloft remains similar to previous model runs,
with a trough of low pressure still progged to move onshore in
southwestern Canada early Wednesday, with now slightly more
pronounced ridging in place along the west coast of the CONUS.
Further east, a strong trough aloft, with a cold front trailing
southward from it, will be pushing through the Great Lakes and into
New England through the end of the week. The trough will be slow to
move through, as it intensifies and slows down on its eastward trek.
The front trailing from this system will bring widespread showers
and storms to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night as it
moves pushes eastward through the region. The parent trough will
become our primary weather maker the rest of the week, as it moves
slowly through the Great Lakes and into New England. The models
continue to agree that this system will be in place over the eastern
third of the CONUS heading into the weekend. A shortwave trough will
then push southward out of the Great Lakes region on Sunday, on the
backside of the departing original upper trough, and will allow for
scattered showers and storms to finish out the weekend and into next
week. There will be a brief respite from the rain Thursday night
and Friday, as we will be between systems, although a few showers
and storms cannot be ruled out in our eastern counties as we get
brushed by the backside of a large departing trough.

The highest rain chances we see in the extended will be Wednesday
through Thursday, during the passage of a cold front. After that, we
will see several rounds of isolated to scattered showers and storms,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as subsequent troughs
aloft traverse the region. Temperatures should be near normal each
day, with a few day at or slightly above normal, and others at or
slightly below normal. The cooler days will Friday and Saturday,
after the first large trough moves through. There is still a
marginal(5%) chance for excessive rainfall that could lead to
flooding Wednesday through Thursday. The good news is that the
likelihood of heavy rain and flooding is still not increasing as we
approach the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are on tap for today, along with light winds.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the mid-
day in northeast KY and near the VA border, which could bring very
localized sub-VFR conditions. However, coverage and impacts are
not enough to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Valley fog is also
forecast late tonight, but should mainly impact the valleys. Did
include some scattered low IFR decks as the fog begins to lift in
the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions should remain in place
through the end of the forecast period. Mid and high clouds will
begin moving into the TAF sites during the day, ahead of rain
chances. These rain chances should hold off until 18Z and later,
so did not include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW