538
FXUS62 KKEY 300254
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1054 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The atmosphere has been a tease tonight. First, convection across
the southwest mainland pushed offshore and was heading towards our
waters. However, before reaching fully into the outer Gulf waters,
it fell apart. The outflow boundary that came out from these
collapsing storms were unable to fire any new showers on their
own. Now as of 10 pm, boundaries are racing through the area but
none are too successful of producing any shower activity that
lasts longer than say 15 to 20 minutes. On top of that, none of
these showers have fallen across the island chain.

This will be changing over the next 12 to 18 hours as an easterly
undulation is moving through the Bahamas this evening and will
slowly move westward across our area by tomorrow. In addition,
deeper layer moisture will accompany this feature so the dry
period we`ve had over the last 5 days should come to an end
tomorrow. With that in mind, have made no changes to the going
forecast given the less than enthusiastic shower presence
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche
will move westward into Central America overnight and Sunday.
Breezes across the Keys will relax somewhat as the system presses
west. Breezes will freshen as Beryl, soon to be a hurricane,
marches steadily west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday
through Thursday. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories
for additional information on the track and future evolution of
Beryl.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with gentle to
moderate easterly winds. Moisture will begin surging into the area
from the east towards dawn Sunday and this will lead to
precipitation breaking out by late morning or early afternoon.
Given moderate confidence, have included mentions of VCSH at this
time.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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