856
FXUS63 KLBF 220940
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
440 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next thunderstorm chance arrives Sunday afternoon/evening
  across swrn/ncntl Nebraska. Storm coverage is expected to
  remain mostly isolated and the potential for severe weather is
  low at this time.

- Potential for Heat advisory conditions across parts of wrn and ncntl
  Nebraska Monday.

- Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast this morning;
the result of a short wave trof moving east through wrn Nebraska.
Very high values of KDP, or Specific differential Phase, are noted
on radar with the isolated storms underway and this will support
locally heavy rain. The precip loading could support strong or
perhaps isolated severe wind gusts. KLBF gusted to 79 mph around 3
am with the passage of an isolated severe storm. This storm activity
could be clear of ncntl/ Custer county by 6 am. The forecast allows
for additional storm development through late morning. The reason
for this is the short wave is still moving through wrn Nebraska.

Given the isolated rain chance this morning, the Flood Watch will be
allowed to expire at 12z this morning. The chance of upscale growth
with any storm development appears low.

The next thunderstorm chance arrives Sunday afternoon/evening across
swrn/ncntl Nebraska. The focus is a dryline bulge nosing into swrn
Nebraska from nern Colo/nwrn KS. The forecast is leaning on the NAM
for isolated to low end scattered storm coverage. Both the RAP and
NAM indicate around 4000 J/KG of MLCAPE and bulk shear is around
40kts. The shear may be generous given h500-300mb winds are just 25-
35kts and the 850-700mb moisture transport is also modest. Still the
strong theta-e advection shown in the NAM and RAP support the
potential for an isolated severe storms. Pre-storm PWAT is 1-1.25
inches in the RAP but 1.50 inches in the NAM. It is worth noting,
temperatures Sunday temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s
with sfc dew points north of 60F. A 700mb upper level disturbance
will be moving through the Colo Rockies which is very distant
relative to the expected storm development on the Plains. Thus, it
appears dryline will be the focus and support for storm development
which makes this forecast somewhat speculative.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Attention is drawn to the potential for Heat advisory
conditions across ncntl Nebraska Monday. The models show heat
moving through WY and into wrn Nebraska and a weak warm front
across ncntl Nebraska. Moisture will pool along this boundary
and if the temperature forecast of highs in the 90s with dew
points in the upper 60s is correct, heat indexes near 100F
should occur.

A weak cold front will drift into wrn/ncntl Nebraska Monday night
and become stationary across wrn Nebraska Tuesday through Thursday.
The GFS is suggesting the clash of the air masses, ever-present June
moisture and reasonably strong winds aloft- 25-45 kts at h500-300mb
will support thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures aloft at h700mb will be warm, around 15C and this
suggests storm development might be more favored in the evening or
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across portions of
north central Nebraska tonight before coming to an end by sunrise.
Thunderstorms are not expected to impact either terminal at this
time. Across northern Nebraska, some light fog will persist into the
morning hours due to recent rainfall. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise giving way to VFR conditions by the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006>010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik