Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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386 FXUS63 KLBF 151728 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms moving out of the panhandle and into the western sandhills this evening and early tonight may produce isolated wind damage and large hail. - Active weather pattern continues with daily chances for thunderstorms into the first part of next week. Some storms may produce isolated wind damage, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall, especially up along the Hwy 20 corridor Sunday and Monday. - Very warm conditions persist south of Highway 2 for the next couple of days, but cooler temperatures will slowly push down from the north through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms which moved across central and western Nebraska last night will linger this morning east of Hwy 83 before finally pushing off to the east with increasing sunshine and dry conditions for this afternoon. By this evening, a surface low developing in the lee of the Rockies will move across the High Plains and trigger development of thunderstorms. The storms will move through the panhandle this evening and into central Nebraska tonight. Coverage of storms is not expected to be great and the convective environment will not be overly conducive to supporting the storms as they move east. Anticipate steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE values at or above 1500 J/kg will be conducive to maintaining outflow mainly with potential for strong/severe wind gusts as the storms enter from the west and weaken, mainly north of I-80 and west of Hwy 83 and even moreso from Hwy 61 westward. Any storms look to have dissipated by Midnight with dry conditions expected through the daybreak Sunday. The surface low that moves across the High Plains will leave a weak frontal boundary draped across Nebraska for Sunday with a dry line extending down to the south that will serve as trigger for another round of thunderstorms late Sunday/Sunday night, though some capping aloft will help limit potential for thunderstorm development. Shear will be abundant in the vicinity of the boundaries with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50kt late in the day, and ensemble mean SBCAPE values at or above 3500J/kg on the warm side of the boundary generally south of Hwy 2. So any storms that do manage to overcome the cap will have to be watched closely for rapid development in the very robust convective environment with potential for large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and potentially an isolated tornado along the dryline south of I-80. Storms persist into Sunday night before diminishing late. Highs today will range from the low/mid 90s across the southwest to upper 80s/around 90 elsewhere. Highs Sunday will be in the low/mid 90s south of Hwy 2 on the warm side of the boundary, but only around 80 to the north. Lows will range from the middle 50s northwest to middle 60s/near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Initially ensemble guidance is in good agreement in building a strong ridge over the eastern US while a series of upper lows reinforce a trof over the western US. This will allow the lingering frontal boundary to sink southward as a cold front with a gradual cool down to highs around 70 by the middle of next week. Thereafter, the eastern ridge begins to flatten and expand westward, bringing another surge of warmth to the High Plains with a return to readings in the 90s south/80s north by the latter portion of next week. Overall this will be an active pattern with persistent southwesterly flow aloft keeping precipitable water values near the 90th percentile with sluggish frontal boundaries at the surface providing a focus for convection. The net result will be potential for showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy downpours each day next week, especially on Monday with potential for some severe storms. Thereafter, forcing becomes vague with an undefined severe threat though given the pattern some degree of threat may eventually become evident in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions prevail across much of the area through the period with the exception of north central Nebraska (including KVTN) where MVFR ceilings associated with some rain showers continues to slowly push off to the east this afternoon. Southerly winds at 10 to 15kts will continue today with the potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western Sandhills, remaining off to the west of KVTN terminal. By Sunday morning winds will begin to veer towards the north, gusting 20 to 25kts across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Viken