770
FXUS64 KLUB 221130
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The much anticipated cold front was making steady progress south
as of 2 AM along a line from Clovis to Dimmitt to Pampa. Regional
ceilometers showed widespread low stratus immediately behind this
front which will eventually overtake much of our forecast area
this morning and stick with us through the majority of the day.
Highs for the day are likely already in the bag as CAA deepens
from here on resulting in temps falling into the upper 50s in the
far SW TX Panhandle to the 60s elsewhere.

The bigger picture depicts an upper low over CO with an attendant
trough axis shearing out over the South Plains in SW flow, so
deep layer forcing will be hard to come by today. Nevertheless,
the cold front will do its best to garner scattered to numerous
showers and storms this morning. The greatest PoPs remain east of
I27 and Highway 87 closer to a SW-NE oriented moist axis around
850 mb. PWATs within this axis are already around 130% of normal
and will only increase this morning as the column saturates
further to the tune of nearly 2 inches. Given the weaker
background ascent today, widespread heavy rains and flooding
should be less pronounced than yesterday, so no further flood
headlines are expected once the current Flood Watch expires at 7
AM CDT for our Panhandle counties. Aside from frontal convergence,
there is an elevated post-frontal layer of ascent available today
in the form of isentropic ascent from moist SW winds in the
305-310K layer. This ascent looks to fuel a second round of
convection later this morning and afternoon, some of which could
linger overnight in the Rolling Plains. Otherwise, considerably
drier northerly winds will gradually take their toll on the
stratus layer resulting in clearing skies across our NW zones
where the chilliest lows in the lower 40s are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Monday opens with dry and seasonably cool high pressure filtering
through the area with clear skies and light winds. Weakly cyclonic
westerly flow will veer more NW by Monday night ahead of an upper
trough digging south through the Great Plains. Models are trending
farther east with this wave thanks to a bullish longwave ridge
shifting over the Rockies on Tuesday, so this casts considerable
doubt on the NBM`s rain chances on Tuesday which can be
attributed to the wetter models from prior days. Still, the NAM
and a few GEFS members depict stronger daytime heating on Tuesday
underneath cyclonic NW flow which could still prove favorable for
storms thanks to steep mid-level lapse rates atop moistening
southerly flow. Opted to leave NBM`s PoPs intact through Tuesday
night and early Wednesday before steady height rises and rising
thicknesses take foot as the upper high draws closer. Other than
raising NBM`s high temps closer to MOS for Tuesday, no changes
were needed with this package.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

IFR ceilings are on track to keep expanding south from PVW to LBB
in the coming hours with largely MVFR decks expected at CDS today.
Expect on/off showers with some restricted visbys in heavier rain
at times and some TS, although these impacts appear too fleeting
for inclusion in the TAFs. Otherwise, breezy N winds later this
morning will usher in drier air ahead of VFR skies after sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93